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Taiwan Stock Market Plunge: Analysis and Outlook

Schematic diagram of Taiwan stocks.

The four major U.S. stock indexes closed in the red, coupled with three major unfavorable factors including the retreat of large market players and foreign investors switching from buying to selling, Taiwan stocks opened lower yesterday (15th) and even exploded in late trading due to the adjustment effect of the FTSE index. It reached the lowest point and ended up plunging 255 points to close at 19,682 points. The closing point was the first time the index fell below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages since the Golden Dragon Year trading, ending the weekly streak of eight reds.

The legal person stated that since the deviation rate between the market and the annual line has reached 18.5%, the correction of the deviation after the short-term sharp rise is a healthy and reasonable state. Therefore, after falling below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, the short-term market may weaken and correct, and it is expected that the short-term market will weaken and correct. The range falls between 19,248 points and 20,000 points on the monthly line.

Chen Yiguang, chairman of First Financial Investment Consulting, pointed out that at this stage, Taiwan stocks are in a stage where opportunities and risks coexist, with five to five waves of positives and negatives. The main positives include the upcoming Huida GTC conference and Microsoft’s new product launch conference. As for the main negatives, they include: 1. Foreign net short orders increased to 11,600; 2. The New Taiwan dollar continued to depreciate; 3. The stance of the US Federal Reserve may turn neutral or even hawkish; 4. TSMC’s ADR premium space has converged; 5. , ETFs are overheated and concentrated in the short term, causing more sales and more doubts.

Among the 19 major stocks yesterday, only trading department stores bucked the trend and closed in the red, while the rest all fell and closed in the black; 280 listed companies rose, and as many as 649 fell. As for value stocks, TSMC (2330) will go ex-dividend next Monday, and it is estimated that 28.73 points will evaporate. Under the pressure from the market to abandon the dividend, the stock price dropped by 31 yuan yesterday, closing at 753 yuan.

Other large-capitalization stocks such as MediaTek, Fubon Gold, Delta Electronics, Cathay Gold, and United Microelectronics also closed in the red by more than 1% simultaneously. Among the weight-capitalization groups, only Hon Hai supported the overall situation. It once hit the daily limit during the session and ended up rising by 11%. yuan, closing at 132 yuan, with a market value of 1.8 trillion yuan, surpassing MediaTek to rank second in the market.

In terms of groups, the AI ​​group performed relatively strongly, with Quanta and Wistron both being popular indicators, while the shipping group was the weakest, down 4%. Qianjin stocks fell more but rose less, with Parade-KY being the strongest, up 2.8%, and M31 The lower limit is the weakest, and the number of gears remains unchanged at 15.

Small and medium-sized stocks have been the focus of market selling recently. The counter-buying index fell below the monthly line on the 14th. Yesterday, it fell another 1.59 points to close at 246.37 points, which was the lowest level. It was the second consecutive weekly black line.

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2024-03-15 23:19:40
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