As the deadline for registration of presidential and vice presidential candidates on November 20 approaches, how will Hou Youyi, Ke Wenzhe, and Terry Gou match up? It whetted the public’s appetite. Qu Zhaoxiang, a professor at the Institute of Political Science at the National Normal University, told Yahoo TV “The wind is blowing to Taiwan》Program analysis, it seems that Ko Wenzhe and Terry Gou have the effect of “one plus one is equal to two”. As for Ko Wenzhe and Hou Youyi, it is inevitable that some young votes will be lost.
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Qu Zhaoxiang said that even if Gou Taiming is at the bottom of the polls, he still has at least 10% of his supporters, which means that these people are all Guo’s die-hard fans. Even if he partners with others as his deputy, the loss rate will be limited. The problem is that if Gou Taiming wants to be his deputy, his first choice must be Ke Wenzhe, because if he turns back to the Kuomintang, he will undoubtedly be humiliating himself, and he will definitely be made fun of by the Green Camp.
Qu Zhaoxiang judged that Ko Wenzhe’s approval rate remained at 25% on average, and combined with Gou Taiming’s 10%, it was enough to threaten Lai Qingde. Although in practice, it is impossible to completely add up the support of the two people, we must also consider that some of Hou Youyi’s supporters will turn over. Therefore, it is said that Ke Guo has “one plus one is equal to two”. Effect.
Qu Zhaoxiang described that non-green supporters all come from the same water level. As long as the water level rises when Ke Guo is formed, Hou Youyi’s water level will naturally drop, and Hou’s camp will even collapse, forming the so-called abandonment effect.
Qu Zhaoxiang pointed out that many of Ke Wenzhe’s supporters are young people aged 20 to 29. These people have never voted for the Kuomintang, and their peers will ridicule those who vote for the Kuomintang. Therefore, if Hou Ke is matched, these young people will definitely There will be a huge loss. Even Ke Houpei may not be able to attract Gou Taiming’s votes.
Regarding the recent series of “fishy rumors” coming out of the Democratic Progressive Party, Qu Zhaoxiang believes that they will certainly have a negative impact on the overall image of the Democratic Progressive Party, but they are not enough to turn the party around. “This is more of a human nature problem, and it is not exclusive to the Green Camp. It has also happened in the Blue Camp in the past. As time goes by, similar situations will happen in the Bai Camp in the future.”
Qu Zhaoxiang pointed out that many things can be settled as soon as they are over. Even if they cause great harm to the parties involved, the impact on the political party will not be too far-reaching. At present, it seems that the impact on Lai Qingde is also limited.
Extended reading》What if Terry Gou didn’t choose?Miao Boya: We must answer to the millions of voters who signed the petition
[Wind Direction Taiwan]is an opinion exchange platform for experts. The article only reflects the author’s opinion and does not represent the position of Yahoo!
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2023-11-09 07:33:47
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