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Surprising Increase in US Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories, Slowing Exports and High Refinery Activity Explained

Commercial crude oil inventories rose more than expected last week, according to figures released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), a break after several weeks of declines, partly due to slowing exports. .

During the week ending September 8, these reserves jumped by four million barrels, more than the 2.48 million expected by analysts, according to a consensus established by the Bloomberg agency.

This increase in stocks is explained, in part, by the increase in imports (+11%), compared to the previous week, combined with the fall in exports (-37%).

In total, net imports (imports minus exports) more than doubled over the week (+144%).

This is the first positive week for commercial crude reserves since early August. The United States remained in four consecutive weeks of contraction, and 10 in 12 weeks.

Another factor justifying this rise, during the week ending September 8, American crude production increased slightly, to 12.9 million barrels per day, compared to 12.8 during the previous week, i.e. 700,000 barrels more over seven days.

In addition to crude, gasoline stocks also surprised, up 5.6 million barrels, seven times what was expected by analysts (800,000 barrels).

For Matt Smith of Kpler, the faster increase in gasoline reserves than those of crude oil is linked to the drop in deliveries of this fuel to the United States, down nearly 11% over one week, a sign of a slowdown in demand.

At the same time, refinery activity shows a very high level, at 93.7% of their capacity, compared to 93.1% over the previous period.

You have to go back five years to find evidence of such use of refineries at this time of year.

The combination of weakened demand and high production thus explains the surge in gasoline stocks.

Apart from a brief inflection, the market reacted little to this publication.

Around 3:05 p.m. GMT, the price of a barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in October was up 0.40%, to $89.20.

2023-09-13 15:14:20


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