Did the virus come to Europe before? Image: www.imago-images.de / JB Autissier
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Starting in October? Study shows new possible pandemic course
Attentive news readers remember: In early January, the first reports appeared in German-language media about a “mysterious lung disease in China”. Today we know the trigger for this disease, the virus called Sars-CoV-2.
It is commonly believed that the corona pandemic started at the end of the year. The first cases of Covid-19 appeared in Europe in early 2020, when the state of emergency in China had long been. The Robert Koch Institute assumes that the virus has spread in the People’s Republic since December 2019.
But is that true? At least the December theory is currently crumbling.
Because there are indications that Sars-CoV-2 started the trip around the world a little earlier. British researchers are providing new insights into this.
When did the pandemic start?
Scientists from University College London (UCL) published a study on Wednesday in the journal “Infection, Genetics and Evolution”. They analyzed more than 7,500 samples of the virus worldwide. From the genetic mutations, they were able to infer the course of the pandemic.
The virus can change genetically with each transmission. It mutates to better adapt to its host. Researchers can deduce the spread from the changes in the gene sequences.
The researchers write:
“Our results are consistent with previous estimates, suggesting that all sequences have a common ancestor towards the end of 2019, which confirms this as the period in which SARS-CoV-2 jumped into its human host.”
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But it is exciting that the scientists specify a time span. The pandemic could start a few months earlier than something the RKI is currently reporting. The central finding of the study is:
“Phylogenetic estimates support the assumption that the Covid pandemic started around October 6 through December 11, 2019.”
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Did the corona virus reach Europe very early on?
The researchers cannot say the exact time for the first transmission between animals and humans – the origin of Sars-CoV-2 is suspected.
But their results are in line with other findings from Europe. French doctors announced on Monday that Corona might have arrived in France by the end of December.
They examined an old sample from a patient at the time with pneumonia. A sample dated December 27th hit Covid-19, as reported by Yves Cohen, chief resuscitator of the Avicenne Jean-Verdier clinic group. At the end of 2019, of course, the samples had not yet been examined for corona.
Where the man was infected is unclear, Cohen reported to BFM TV. In the meantime he is well again. The patient’s wife worked near a sushi stand near colleagues of Chinese origin. The first official Corona cases in France were people who tested positive in late January 2020 and were previously in China.
In Italy there are also suspicions of an earlier start
The World Health Organization (WHO) also called on other states on Tuesday to check similar illnesses for a coronavirus infection in late 2019.
In Italy, it has also long been suspected that Corona reached the country earlier than previously known. From October to December 2019, there was a significantly higher number of flu diseases and pneumonia in Lombardy, reports the “world”.
If the corona virus really came to France and Italy earlier, this could also explain why Covid-19 hit the two countries so much more than Germany. To date, around 25,000 people have died of corona in France, and around 30,000 in Italy. There are around 7,000 corona deaths in Germany. The high number of fatalities in France and Italy may indicate a high number of unreported cases, which means that far more people have been infected than is officially known. Because the virus might have been introduced to both countries early on, it was able to spread undetected. However, there is still no reliable information on this.
Researchers at Cambridge University recently reported that the virus broke out between September 13 and December 7. From the analysis of the mutations in the virus, they concluded that Wuhan was possibly not the starting point, but rather the Chinese province of Guangdong.
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