Summers in Spain within 30 years may register heat waves with temperatures up to 50 degrees centigrade, droughts and torrential rains and tropical nights could last more than two months in parts of the Mediterranean, Seville, Cádiz and in the autonomous city of Melilla.
According to a study by eltiempo.es, summer in 2050 could further notice the effects of climate change, which could worsen even if there is the highest rate of pollutants and radioactive forcing, that is, a more pessimistic scenario.
The report warns that if global warming is not limited to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius and that threshold is notably exceeded, it could have serious consequences in some Spanish regions in the coming decades.
Specifically, it refers to effects such as the difficulty of falling asleep due to the increase in tropical nights, the increase in the average temperature or floods due to heavy rainfall, are just some of them.
In his prediction, he points out that summers in 2050 will be marked by very high temperatures, with a season “plunged into a heat wave” with values that could “easily” reach 42ºC in Madrid, 44ºC in Bilbao, 45ºC in Valencia and Santa Cruz de Tenerife, and up to 49ºC could be reached in Seville and Córdoba.
In addition, he adds that the trend is that heat waves will increase in frequency and intensity and that the values will be above current heat wave thresholds. In fact, it is also foreseeable that the increase in temperatures will raise the threshold to be considered a heat wave.
The study states that while in Madrid in 2020 it is necessary to exceed 39ºC for it to be considered a heat wave, but within 30 years that value will be “more common” and it will be necessary to exceed 39ºC and 43ºC in areas such as the Guadalquivir valley .
At that time the duration of heat waves will also worsen, although currently the longest heat waves last a week in Madrid, Barcelona or the Balearic Islands, these could reach 11-13 days in 2050. The longest could extend for about two weeks in points of the interior of the peninsula and exceed 20 days on the Mediterranean coast.
The definition of a heat wave establishes that for at least three days the 95th percentile of the series of maximum temperatures for the months of July and August must be exceeded in 10 percent of the stations. Since 1975 there have been 57 heat waves in Spain and the trend is for them to increase in frequency and intensity.
Harmful to health
Precisely, the study adds that the heat will worsen at night, especially in cities where the heat island effect will make nighttime cooling even more difficult, since it will increase until tropical nights become “very common”.
Compared to the average minimum summer temperatures of 2020 and those of 2050, in Madrid they will go from 16ºC to 18ºC, while in Zaragoza it will be 3ºC more than in 2020. In the Mediterranean area, the normal thing will be to have minimums of about 21ºC, so tropical nights will be very common.
For example, making a total calculation of tropical nights during the summer, Mediterranean regions could exceed 60 days, while in Seville, Cádiz, Ceuta or Melilla where it would be between 68 and 70 nights with minimums above 20ºC.
In Madrid, Zaragoza and Cáceres the number of tropical nights will double with respect to the current one and in cities of Castilla y León this value will triple.
In addition to tropical nights, warm nights will be very common, since it foresees that on the Mediterranean coast and many points inland there will be more than 40 warm nights where the minimums will be above the 90th percentile at the end of the last century.
“What we now considered extremely warm nights from 2050 on will be the norm, as almost half the days of the summer season could occur,” he says.
In fact, he estimates that even more tropical nights will be recorded at the end of this century than in 2050. Specifically, he foresees that in Madrid there will be 57 nights; in Barcelona, 61 and between 70 and 75 tropical nights in cities on the Mediterranean coast. As for Andalusia, she points out that “practically every night in the summer will be tropical with minimum temperatures above 20:25C”.
Droughts and heavy rains
Regarding rainfall, consider during summers 30 years from now there could be regions in which not a single drop is recorded in more than 60 days. These droughts will alternate precisely with floods in the most arid areas of the country.
In the same way, it warns that the arid surface will continue to increase in Spain, which at the beginning of this century was approximately 4.4 percent of the territory and in 2050 that percentage will increase to 6 percent and could even extend further, up to to reach the entire southeast of the peninsula, which would acquire a semi-arid and arid index.
The study also warns that there will be little rain in the Mediterranean but when they do occur, the torrential will prevail, causing floods and increasing the risk of natural disasters that cause more physical damage.
Finally, tiempo.es has predicted that in 2050 the Segura basin will be where it rains the fewest days throughout the year. Of the 365 days a year, in 309 it will not rain and in other hydrographic basins of the southern half it will be more than 300 days a year without collecting appreciable rainfall.
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