Experts estimate that the pandemic could dramatically increase deaths from malaria, HIV and tuberculosis in poorer countries. In areas where infectious diseases are common, health systems and drug delivery could be seriously disrupted, researchers from Imperial College London warned.
According to model calculations, more people could die from these three diseases in the next five years than from the novel corona virus. Both HIV and tuberculosis and malaria are now inexpensive and effective treatment and prevention tools. Yet nearly three million people worldwide die from these diseases each year, the vast majority of them in low- and middle-income countries.
According to the researchers, people in dozens of countries are already avoiding medical practices and hospitals for fear of corona infection. The supply situation with medication and antiretroviral treatments for HIV is also tense.
More HIV than corona deaths possible
For the study, which was published in the medical journal “Lancet Global Health”, the team examined four different scenarios for the course of the corona pandemic. The most serious consequences would therefore be interruptions in antiretroviral treatment for people infected with HIV: In parts of southern Africa, up to ten percent more people could die from HIV than without the lung disease Covid-19 caused by the coronavirus.
In the worst case scenario, deaths from tuberculosis in southern Africa could increase by 20 percent. Tuberculosis is still the world’s deadliest infectious disease. Malaria deaths could increase by 36 percent if campaigns to distribute mosquito nets were interrupted alone.
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