Stop mass testing for corona and switch to random sampling, argue two virologists

From March 23, all corona measures will disappear. What is the use of large-scale testing at the GGD then? Virologists Bert Niesters and Marjolein Kikkert agree: it is no longer necessary. Keeping an eye on the virus can also be done with less testing.

After carnival and the spring break, the infection figures are rising rapidly. Last week there were an average of 60,000 positive corona tests per day. The GGD test streets are still working overtime, but why? Eight questions for virologists Bert Niesters (University of Groningen) and Marjolein Kikkert (Leids University Medical Center).

1. What about the number of positive tests in the Netherlands?

Niesters: “Not everyone with complaints is still tested at the GGD, I assume that. But among the people who still do this, the percentage of positive PCR tests is between 60 and 70 percent. That 60 percent applies to the north of the country.”

“In Limburg and Brabant, 70 percent of the tests are positive, the difference is mainly due to carnival. People close together, hopping and jumping. Yes, then everyone is infected.”

2. Will we ever stop testing?

Niesters: “I hope so! You cannot continue to test on such a large scale. At the moment, about 500,000 people test positive every week at the GGD. I assume that half of the people with complaints are tested. , so actually you are at 1 million infected people per week. If you keep this up for a few weeks, you have a few million people who have been infected with this virus.”

“The omikron variant is really contagious. You want to know the percentage of positive tests, so that you can see how the variant is developing. But you don’t need 60,000 tests per day for that. It is also possible with a smaller number of tests. can therefore scale down.”

Kikkert: “Detailed testing (PCR testing) can indeed be abandoned, but we must continue to monitor what is happening with this virus. We must be careful that no new variants arise. If we stop large-scale testing, we must we replace that with samples. So: testing, but less. This to ensure that we keep an eye on how the virus develops.”

3. Is it a solution to switch to just self-testing?

Niesters: “There are many people who use the self-test and if they test positive they do not also need to be tested at the GGD. That is unnecessary and costs the GGD a lot of money.”

Kikkert: “With self-tests you can very well demonstrate that someone is infected. And when you are infected, it is still beneficial that you stay at home. To demonstrate that you are infected, you no longer have to use all the testing capacity of the GGD. become.”

4. Won’t we lose sight of the virus if we start testing less at the GGD?

Niesters: “No, I’m not afraid of that. Whether you do 50,000 tests or 20,000, the percentage of positive tests remains about the same. You only get more numbers after the decimal point if more people get tested. That’s why more people don’t necessarily more useful.”

“There is also plenty of testing outside the GGD and other countries are also keeping an eye on the virus. The problem is mainly that not the entire world population has been vaccinated yet. In many areas, the corona virus will continue to circulate for a long time.”

Kikkert: “If we start working with those samples, we keep an eye on what kind of virus people are carrying. We then actually monitor the properties of the virus and whether we should respond to it.”

5. What if a new virus variant emerges?

Kikkert: “If a variant emerges that is different from omikron, we have another problem. A new variant can have completely different properties. That means that we have to look at it carefully. We may have to take new measures and developing new vaccines. We really have to be careful, because the virus is still in full swing.”

6. Will there come a time when everyone will be immune to this virus?

Niesters: “Immunity arises in a number of ways. For example, through vaccination and boosters, but also because people have been infected. We only know that if you have antibodies in your body you are not necessarily protected by definition, unfortunately.”

“If you were infected with the delta or alpha variant in the beginning, you are not immediately protected against the omikron variant. Your body does not have the right antibodies for it.”

7. Spain already sees COVID-19 as a flu. What will change if we do the same in the Netherlands?

Niesters: “It will eventually become ‘just’ a cold virus. I always find it a bit annoying to compare corona with the flu. The flu season occurs every year and so do coronaviruses. One flu season we have 1000 deaths and the other 9000. So you can’t just say that it can be compared to the flu. Because which flu season do you get?”

Kikkert: “Like the flu, we must also keep a close eye on this virus. We must continue to monitor what is happening in society, so that we can see whether we need to adjust the vaccines. We must continue to monitor this coronavirus and the way in which we do that will indeed resemble the way we do with the flu.”

8. What is your advice to the government? What would you do with the test policy?

Niesters: “Drastic reduce testing at the GGD, or even stop it. You can keep some test locations open, so that people can have themselves tested when they come back from certain areas from vacation. But I think half a million tests a week are really unnecessary When we took fewer tests, we also discovered the new variants and if a new variant becomes dominant, we will automatically test more, that organizational structure exists.”

Kikkert: “Keep a close eye on the virus by means of random samples, so that we can react in time if a new variant appears. But it is no longer useful that we have ourselves frequently tested at the GGD.”

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