Jakarta, CNN Indonesia —
Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani Indrawati revealed the scenario of the Implementation of Restrictions on Community Activities (PPKM) Emergency can last up to 6 weeks. This was done to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
“Emergency PPKM is carried out for 4-6 weeks to contain the spread of cases. Community mobility is expected to decrease significantly,” said Ani, her nickname, in her presentation material during a virtual meeting with the DPR Budget Agency, Monday (12/7).
Ani explained that the increase in the number of Covid-19 cases would have an impact on the pace of the Indonesian economy. Ani estimates that economic growth will be in the range of 4 percent to 5.4 percent in the third quarter of 2021. The projection is 4 percent for the severe scenario, while 5.4 percent is made for the moderate scenario.
“Economic recovery will be halted. Economic growth in the third quarter is predicted to slow to 4 percent to 5.4 percent,” he said
In addition, a scenario is also made taking into account the Java-Bali Emergency PPKM policy implemented by the government on 3-20 July 2021. Likewise with the expansion of Emergency PPKM outside Java-Bali starting today.
Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter of 2021, the state treasurer estimates that the economy will be in the range of 4.6 percent for the severe scenario. While the moderate scenario could reach 5.9 percent.
Even so, the projected economic rate until the end of the year has not changed from the last projection submitted to the public, which is 3.7 percent to 4.5 percent. This prediction is still taking into account the Indonesian economy, which he estimates will grow in the range of 7.1 percent to 7.5 percent in the second quarter of this year.
In addition to economic growth, Ani estimates that inflation by the end of the year will be in the range of 1.8 percent to 2.5 percent. Meanwhile, the realization of inflation until the first semester of 2021 is 1.33 percent.
“Inflation is expected to increase gradually in the second semester in line with expectations of improved demand after Emergency PPKM and accelerated vaccination,” he explained.
Furthermore, the rupiah exchange rate is estimated to be in the range of Rp14,200 to Rp14,800 per US dollar at the end of the year. Then, the 10 -year SBN interest rate is in the range of 6.34 percent to 7.24 percent.
“The exchange rate at the end of the first semester tends to weaken amid a surge in domestic COVID cases and the market response to the US (central bank) monetary policy normalization plan and has the potential to continue in the second half,” he explained.
Then, the price of Indonesian crude oil (ICP) is in the range of US$55-65 per barrel. Meanwhile, oil lifting is 680 thousand to 705 thousand barrels per day and gas lifting is 987 thousand to 1.007 million barrels per day equivalent.
Just as the government has lowered Indonesia’s economic projections for 2021, Bank Indonesia (BI) is also pessimistic about the growth rate this year. Especially because of the implementation of the Emergency PPKM policy.
“Asessment Meanwhile, with BI in one month implementing Emergency PPKM, economic growth is estimated at 3.8 percent,” said BI Governor Perry Warjiyo on the same occasion.
This figure is lower than the revision of Indonesia’s economic growth that was previously carried out by BI recently by 4.1 percent to 5.1 percent. Meanwhile, BI’s initial assumption was 4.8 percent to 5.8 percent.
(uli / agt)
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