Spartans: The conundrum of the discount, the seats and the possible carambolas – 2024-04-16 16:07:20

The imminent decision of the Supreme Special Court (Electoral Court) on the fate of the “Spartans”, under the weight of the prosecutor’s order to bring criminal charges for the crime of voter fraud, is causing intense legal-political interest and activating political forces in view possible participation of the “Spartans” in the European electionsby Kyriakos Mitsotakis to take the initiative to submit a memorandum to the Supreme Court against their participation, even expressing the hope that there will be coordination with the opposition.

The reshuffle it is expected to bring to parliamentary relations has sparked a public debate with scenarios of what happens next varying. Constitutionalists, election experts and political analysts are trying to “decipher” the new data that will result in the potential disqualification of the deputies in the event that the Electoral Court certifies that the “Spartans” were nothing more than the “Trojan Horse” of the imprisoned Kasidiaris. But what does any annulment decision of the Electoral Court signify?

The question of filling

Possible annulment of the election of the twelve members of the “Spartans” creates a puzzle, the resolution of which will be called upon to indicate the Electoral Court itself, as it will have to answer the basic question of how these positions will be filled. If the Parliament held its fourth session, there would be no need to fill the vacant seats as the Constitution provides (Article 53 par. 2) that “a parliamentary seat vacated within the last year of the term is not filled by a by-election, when required by law, as long as the vacant seats are not more than one-fifth of the total number of deputies». But now;

The by-elections

Although the choice of by-elections in the twelve constituencies where the “Spartans” took office seems to some to be logical, in this case it seems not to be. By-elections could be implemented in the event that a valid seat became vacant. In this particular case, however, we will talk about the cancellation of the disputed seats. In addition, it is a rather impractical scenario as it occupies the twelve largest regions of the country “in which in June 2023 they voted a total of almost 2.5 million voters, i.e. almost half of the active electorate (48%), as roughly happened in the May confrontation”, as the political scientist and lecturer at the University of Crete explains Panagiotis Koustenis, wanting to give the real dimension of such a development.

Although the choice of by-elections in the twelve constituencies where the “Spartans” took office seems to some to be logical, in this case it seems not to be

And indeed, as he observes, in Attica, with the exception of the two smallest constituencies (West Attica and A’ Piraeus), all the remaining voters of the capital will be called to the polls to cover only six parliamentary seats, while similarly all the voters of Thessaloniki (Districts A and B) will have to vote for two vacant positions. In fact, he also distinguishes the following parameter: “Within the framework of the majority system that will apply, it is not unlikely that the ruling party will face joint candidates of the opposition partiesin an effort to repeat the successes of the second round of self-governing elections”.

The redistribution of seats

If the Electoral Court decides to redistribute the seats of the “Spartans” based on the re-application of the existing electoral law to the June election result, then the removal of the 12 “Spartan” seats will lead to an overall increase in its representation SW by 6 seats (from 158 to 164, according to the election result) and of SYRIZA by 3 (from 47 to 50), while PaSoK, KKE and Pleussi Eleftherias will win from one seataccording to the analysis of Mr. Koostenis, who does not fail to underline that “as to what the exact changes will be at the level of electoral districts, the crucial point is how the court will deal with the votes of the party in question”.

To the “other” parties

A relatively simpler version is that “the “Spartans” should be excluded from the process of securing seats, i.e. they should be treated exactly like the “other” parties (with a percentage lower than 3%) which remain outside the Parliament”. In her case redistribution of unused seats (which, according to the electoral law, is conducted with the criterion of the most unused votes per district for each party, starting with the smallest), as he reminds, it is expected that Pleussi will be given an additional seat in Piraeus II, KKE in the Western Sector and in PaSoK in B’ Thessaloniki, while SYRIZA will win from one seat in Eastern Attica, in the Northern Sector of Athens and in Serres. Finally, New Democracy will in principle win a seat in A’ Athens, South Sector, Aitoloakarnania, Larissa, as well as in A’ Thessaloniki, Achaia and Heraklion, but losing in Serres the seat that ends up in SYRIZA.

The annulment of votes

Another – more extreme – version, which is said to be advancing according to some publications, is the votes of the “Spartans” to be completely annulled (and their percentage to be distributed proportionally to the other parties). Nevertheless “the cancellation of a total of 243,922 votes from the election result – in addition to the debates it will undoubtedly raise – it is also going to cause significant reductions in the calculations of the electoral measure per district, as well as disrupt the order of local unused votes of each party, differentiating and at the same time increasing the “carambolas” between more regions” emphasizes Mr. Koustenis.

According to his analysis, the New Democracy apart from the first 4 seats mentioned above (Athens A, South Sector, Etoloakarnania and Larissa) he will win seats from the State ballot, Imathia and Ioannina, while in such a scenario he loses a seat from Thessaloniki A, the second, that is, which will remain vacant in the region in question, after that of the “Spartans”. The first of these two “orphan” seats ends up in KKE (along with that of the Western Sector), which thus loses the seat of the Ioannina in favor of the ND. The second is granted to Greek solution, which accordingly loses the seat of Imathia, so that it is maintained at 12 seats in total. The SYRIZA, apart from the Northern Sector and Eastern Attica, he wins his 3rd additional seat in Heraklion (instead of Serres). Finally the Freedom Sailingin addition to the seat of Second Piraeus, also wins one in Achaia, as a result of which it is deprived of the seat of the State ballot, which again ends up in the ND.