The infections seem to stabilize, but hospitalizations and victims of Covid are increasing. The independent monitoring carried out in the week 11-17 November by the Gimbe Foundation seems to confirm a slowdown in the rise of the epidemic curve: the new diagnosed cases are 242,609 (against 235,634 of the Previous week), compared to a small reduction in tampons (854,626 against 872,026) and a slight increase in the rate of positivity (28.4% against 27%). The currently positives grew by 24.4% (733.810 against 590.110 in the previous week) and deaths increased by 41.7% (4.134 against 2.918) The contagion like a car that after accelerating the race for weeks (percentage increase cases), now travels at a very high but constant speed (number of cases per week) despite having reduced the acceleration explains Nino Cartabellotta, president of Gimbe.
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Limitations remain at Christmas
Looking at the absolute numbers, we cannot speak of a slowdown because we run the risk of emphasizing timid improvements to limit restrictions and legitimize reopening. In the last week, in fact, there was a further reduction in the percentage increase (from 31% to 24.4%) but the new cases still increased by 242,609 compared to the previous week. Furthermore, in all the Regions, except Puglia, the percentage increase in cases has decreased, but the currently positives are increasing everywhere except in Valle D’Aosta. While the slowdowns of the last week represent a positive sign – explains Cartabellotta – it must be said that the containment measures introduced have not “flattened”the contagion curve that continues to rise albeit at reduced speed. The currently positive, hospitalizations, intensive care and, above all, deaths are also increasing. In this scenario, assume a easing of measures with the aim of saving the Christmas, is likely to have very serious consequences.
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Hospital beds
The reduction in the percentage increase can also be seen in the number of hospitalized patients with symptoms (+ 15.5%) and, to a lesser extent, in intensive care (+ 21.6%). Also in this case, however, there is an increase in absolute terms: both patients in ordinary wards (33,074 against 28,633 in the previous week) and more serious patients in resuscitation (3,612 against 2,971) are growing. Anyhow, the employment threshold 40% defined by the Ministry of Health for Covid patients in the wards of the state medical area exceeded in 15 Regions and that of 30% in intensive care in 17. If the respective national averages have reached 51% and 42%, in various Regions the values are much higher and some hospitals are at the end also because, adds Cartabellotta Covid patients are progressively “cannibalizing” the beds other departments limiting the ability to assist patients with other pathologies.
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Deaths will increase
Separate chapter, unfortunately for the victims of Covid. The increase in deaths – explains Renata Gili of the Gimbe Foundation – instead maintains a exponential trend, by registering a +41,7% compared to the previous week. This increase destined to increase in the coming weeks, because the effect of the restrictive measures reduces first the rates of contagion (Rt, percentage increase in cases), then hospitalizations and intensive care, and only lastly the deaths.
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November 19, 2020 (change November 19, 2020 | 14:35)
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