SHCP cuts crude oil extraction forecast by 131 thousand barrels per day in 2024

Mexico City. In an environment marked by global cuts to the production of crude oil, the Mexican government reduced its estimates for the oil production platform for this and the following year, indicate the Economic Policy Precriteria for 2025 that were released this week by the Secretariat. of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP).

The production platform is expected to reach one million 852 thousand barrels of crude oil per day by 2024 and one million 863.1 thousand barrels per day by 2025, lower figures than estimated in the 2024 Economic Package.says the document.

In the Economic Budget that was approved for this year, the agency estimated that the production platform would close in 2024 at an average of one million 983 thousand barrels of crude oil per day, while the estimates for next year had a base of one million 995 thousand.

In this sense, the new projection for 2024 implies a cut of 131 thousand barrels of crude oil per day, while for the following year, the reduction in estimates is of the same proportion.

The agency explained that for the remainder of the year, globally, crude oil prices are expected to remain rising due to production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its associates (OPEC+). as well as a possible prolongation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have caused interruptions in the transportation of energy in the Red Sea.

Mexico is part of the OPEC partners and throughout last year it made a series of production cuts, although in the last announcement no updates from our country were released.

On March 4, OPEC+ announced that it would extend voluntary cuts to crude oil production until the second quarter of the year, which represents more support for a market concerned about the prospects for global economic growth. This is an approximate reduction of 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day, the objective of which is support the stability and balance of oil markets.

However, the Treasury foresees lower demand for crude oil due to a possible slowdown in global demand, especially due to China. Therefore, it is expected that on average the price of the Mexican export mix will be 71.3 dollars per barrel in 2024, and for 2025, a price of 58.4 dollars per barrel is estimated..

The projection for this year is higher than the 56.6 dollars per barrel that were estimated in the 2024 Economic Package, as well as what was expected for 2025, since previously an average price of 53.2 dollars per barrel was considered.

Spending at Pemex is on the rise

Separately, the agency announced that in the first two months of the year, the expenditure made by Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) totaled 102 thousand 134 million pesos, an increase of 9.7 percent in real terms when compared to the 88 thousand 944 million reported in 2023.

However, during February alone, Pemex’s spending was 31,518.9 million pesos, which represented a drop of 40.1 percent in real terms compared to the 50,388.8 million pesos reported in the second month of the previous year.