Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, September 30 Topic: The three major indexes rebounded simultaneously to release positive signals for economic performance – Interpretation of September PMI data
Xinhua News Agency reporter Wei Yukun
Data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on September 30 showed that in September, as policy effects continued to accumulate and positive factors in economic operations continued to increase, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) , the non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.2%, 51.7% and 52% respectively, up 0.5, 0.7 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The three major indices are all in the expansion range. my country’s economic prosperity level has rebounded.
“In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded for four consecutive months, rising to the expansion range for the first time since April. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the PMI of 11 industries was above the critical point, an increase of 2 from the previous month. The manufacturing boom The coverage has expanded,” said Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics.
——Market demand is gradually recovering, and manufacturing production activities continue to accelerate.
Statistics show that in September, the manufacturing production index and new orders index were 52.7% and 50.5% respectively, an increase of 0.8 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In order to meet production needs, companies have increased their purchasing efforts, and the purchasing volume index rose to 50.7%.
Market supply and demand are recovering at an accelerated pace, coupled with further active corporate purchasing activities, the overall level of manufacturing market prices continues to rise. In September, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 59.4% and 53.5% respectively, an increase of 2.9 and 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, both of which were highs during the year.
“Business surveys show that the proportion of companies reporting insufficient market demand has been declining for three consecutive months.” Wen Tao, an expert at the China Logistics Information Center, said that combined with changes in the supply and demand index, since the third quarter, market demand has continued to improve, and corporate production has accelerated. Economic development momentum continues to be consolidated.
——The PMI of all key industries has rebounded, and the synergy of economic development has increased.
In September, the PMIs of the equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing industry and consumer goods industry were 50.6%, 50.1% and 51.3% respectively, up 0.6, 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, all in the expansion range. The PMI for high-energy-consuming industries was 49.7%, which was 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous month, although it was lower than the critical point.
“Recently, the sales of the company’s floor washing machines, vacuum cleaners and other products have continued to rebound. Product sales in September have reached about three times the level of the same period last year.” Sun Yang, brand manager of Suzhou Ruijiu Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., said that from now on Looking at orders, floor washing machines, vacuum cleaners and other products still maintain high growth and have broad market prospects.
——Business expectations are relatively optimistic, and development confidence has increased.
In September, the expectation index for production and operating activities was 55.5%, basically the same as last month, and has remained stable at a good level above 55% for three consecutive months.
However, the survey results also show that the proportion of manufacturing companies that reflected intensified industry competition, high raw material costs and financial constraints in September increased compared with the previous month, and the manufacturing industry still faces some difficulties in resuming development. Zhao Qinghe said that in the next step, we need to focus on promoting the implementation of the policies and measures that have been introduced to further consolidate the continued economic recovery.
Looking at the non-manufacturing industry, in September, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.7%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the expansion of the non-manufacturing industry has increased.
The service industry is recovering. In September, the business activity index of the service industry was 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the expansion of the service industry has accelerated. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 58.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
The expansion of the construction industry accelerated. As the impact of hot and rainy weather gradually subsided, the production and construction of the construction industry accelerated in September, and the business activity index rose to a relatively high prosperity range, reaching 56.2%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month.
“In September, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of my country’s enterprises have rebounded for the better.” Zhao Qinghe said.
Industry analysts pointed out that as a leading indicator of economic operation, PMI rebounded in September, showing that my country’s economic operation has undergone significant positive changes, endogenous power continues to increase, and social expectations continue to improve.
On the first day of this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the country’s railways carried 20.098 million passengers, setting a new high in single-day passenger traffic; data from Manbang Freight showed that as of September 21, national fruit road freight volume increased significantly in the third quarter compared with the second quarter. 67.46%; a survey by the Purchasing Committee of the China Chain Store and Franchise Association shows that the overall sales of supermarkets during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are expected to be better than the same period last year… The increase in the flow of people and logistics activity reflects the positive development trend of China’s economic recovery.
Against the background of downward fluctuations in the world economy and a more complex and severe external environment, China’s economy has withstood the pressure and recovered and remains an important engine for world economic growth. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development recently released an economic outlook report, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2023 and 2024 will be 3.0% and 2.7% respectively, while China’s economic growth rate will be 5.1% and 4.6% respectively.
Cong Liang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that currently, a number of reserve policies have been introduced to promote the continued economic recovery. Looking to the future, with the combined efforts of existing and incremental policies, policy effects continue to accumulate, and positive factors continue to increase, we have every reason to believe that our country’s economy will rebound and improve in the long term.
【Error correction】
[Editor in charge: Zhang Qiaosu]
2023-09-30 07:50:21
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