Seismologists have calculated the huge probability of an earthquake of over 7 to collapse Istanbul – Balkans

After the strong earthquakes of magnitude 7.7 and 7.6 in southern Turkey on February 6, the question of a long-predicted major earthquake in the Sea of ​​Marmara region, Northwestern Turkey, has again gained relevance and has become a topic of lively discussion in the country.

The probability that an earthquake with a magnitude above 7 will shake this region by the end of the 30s of the 21st century is about 64 percent, according to Associate Professor Dogan Kalafat.

According to the expert, who spoke to Turkish private broadcaster CNN-Turk, the probability increases even more in the coming decades, with the chance of such a quake increasing to 75 percent by the 1950s and 95 percent by the 1990s. per hundred.

According to Prof. Jelyal Shengyor, scientists expect an earthquake of at least magnitude 7 in the Marmara region, the duration of which could be as long as two minutes. An earthquake there can even be of magnitude 9 on the Richter scale, the specialist claims.

According to another renowned seismologist, Prof. Naji Görür, there is a build-up of energy along a 79-kilometer fault from the city of Marmara Ereglisi to the Prince’s Islands, which poses the risk of a 7.2-magnitude earthquake. At the same time, however, there is a risk of a larger earthquake in the same area with a magnitude of 7.6.

Prof. Cenk Jaltarak emphasized that there are four fault segments in the Sea of ​​Marmara that did not rupture between 240 and 510 years ago. According to him, the most risky among them, which seismologists expect to rupture, is along the line between Osmangazi and Imralu Island, which is 110 km long. That segment has the potential to produce a magnitude 7.6 earthquake, he says.

Prof. Okan Tuysuz notes that every 250 years there is a major earthquake in the Sea of ​​Marmara. Measurements show that the North Anatolian Fault in the Sea of ​​Marmara is moving by an average of 2 cm per year. The Marmara region is expecting an earthquake of over 7 magnitude. It will most likely occur at a point between Silivri, Istanbul, and the Princes Islands, Prof. Tuysuz says.

According to Prof. Şükrü Ersoy, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7 is possible in Marmara. He points out that the biggest earthquake in this area was the one in 1509, called the “little apocalypse”. This earthquake caused massive destruction and casualties, he says.

Prof. Ahmet Ercan, however, thinks it would be “surprising” if a major earthquake occurs in the area before 2045.