(ABM FN-Dow Jones) Stock market experts are gloomy about October. This is apparent from Actiam’s monthly survey, in which 62 experts took part this time.
“As the days shorten, the gloom has returned,” according to analyst Corné van Zeijl. Of the surveyed stock market experts, 44 percent expect a fall in prices and 27 percent an increase.
“The trigger that is mentioned is a further rise in interest rates. Because the AEX is full of tech names that are relatively interest-sensitive, this can have a significant impact on the index,” says Van Zeijl.
It is striking, according to the analyst, that the percentage of neutral answers is very low. In recent months, that percentage was quite high, “which usually reflects a certain degree of uncertainty. Now the conviction is back.”
The stock market experts are also quite gloomy about the long-term expectations, with 40 percent of the respondents counting on a decline in six months. Just under a quarter expect an increase.
Evergrande
Actiam’s survey also examines the problems surrounding Chinese real estate developer Evergrande. An overwhelming majority of stock market experts think things will fizzle out because Beijing won’t allow Evergrande to become China’s ‘Lehman’ moment.
Value stocks and financials in demand
For the month of October, the surveyed stock market experts are betting on stocks such as Shell, Aegon, ING and ASMI.
“If interest rates rise, you have to have value stocks and financials,” according to Van Zeijl, with tech stock ASMI as an ‘odd man out’ standing out in the list.
On the side of the floppers are growth stocks like Adyen and Just Eat Takeaway. ArcelorMittal is also on this list, “because of the sharp drop in iron ore and steel prices.”
The stock market experts are also counting on a further fall in AkzoNobel’s share price.
Bron: ABM Financial News–
From Beursplein 5, the editors of ABM Financial News keep a close eye on developments on the stock exchanges, and the Amsterdam stock exchange in particular. The information in this column is not intended as professional investment advice or as a recommendation to make certain investments.
