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Russia’s Withdrawal from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Symbolism and Implications

The Russian parliament has approved a bill withdrawing the country from the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). That 1996 international agreement bans all types of nuclear explosions, for both civilian and military purposes.

The Duma, the lower house, previously agreed to this, but now the Federation Council, the upper house, has also agreed. The only formal step for withdrawal from the agreement now remains President Vladimir Putin’s signature, but there is no doubt that that will happen.

The Russian move is largely symbolic. Officially, the CTBT never entered into force because not all signatories to the agreement ratified the treaty. Nuclear powers China, the United States, Pakistan, India, North Korea and Israel, for example, have never done that, but Russia has.

Moreover, the chance that Russia will suddenly test a nuclear weapon is very small. This century, only North Korea has conducted nuclear weapons tests. In addition, Russia says it will not test a nuclear weapon unless the US does so. The country has indicated that it will ‘mirror’ the position of the US. The first step to this end is to withdraw ratification, so that the CTBT has the same status for Russia as the US: an agreement that has been signed, but not ratified.

Joram Bolle

2023-10-25 09:56:15
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