Russian President Vladimir Putin is so ill that he is likely to die within two years, Ukraine has an extensive spy network inside the Russian power apparatus and Russia will soon suffer a series of “obvious” defeats on the Ukrainian battlefield.
All this – and more – claims the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, in an unusually direct interview with the American major newspaper USA Today.
The statements are startling, not least because the sender of them leads a service that actually lives by – and for – secrecy.
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– Dictatory role
In short, Tom Røseth, head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College (FHS), believes that the information can be:
- True.
- Wishful thinking.
- Part of Ukraine’s info war.
- A combination of this and more.
“Either Ukraine takes a high risk towards its sources, the sources may already have been revealed, or they have no sources and seek to disturb and make the Kremlin and Moscow uneasy,” Røseth told Dagbladet.
Gloomy prophecy: – Brutal and bitter
Regardless of what should be true, there is reason to believe that the disclosure of the information will could have significance, the intelligence teacher believes.
– If Moscow itself suspects that they have moles in their own ranks, it is very disturbing. Now that Putin has a dictatorial role, the hunt for possible conspirators and traitors is likely to be large. In that sense, such statements, as Budanov makes, are likely to have an effect in Moscow, says Røseth.
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– Putin seriously ill
Perhaps the most startling claim Budanov makes to USA Today is that Putin is reportedly so ill that he will probably be dead within two years.
The Ukrainian E-boss goes so far in the interview that he claims the information comes from human sources inside the Kremlin.
“He does not have a long life ahead of him,” Budanov told USA Today about Russia’s now 69-year-old president.
Germany under pressure: – Seems conscious
Intelligence teacher Røseth first points out that health information is “incredibly difficult to verify” for an intelligence service, that there are probably also rumors about Putin’s health in the circle around him and that Putin is already older than the average life expectancy for men in Russia.
– Then we almost have to have the attitude that he is healthy until proven otherwise, he says.
The intelligence teacher says that if Putin were to suffer from any diseases, they would – at least for now – be manageable.
– At the same time, it is not certain that the state of health is as good in two years. It may just as well be worse, but for now he actually seems very upbeat. He does not appear marked or particularly ill in his later public appearances, says Røseth.
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– Spy network in the Kremlin
That Ukraine has a good supply of information from Russia is reasonable to believe, Røseth believes. How well placed these sources are – whether they are human or technical – is difficult to know.
– Ukraine has many sympathizers in Russia, who may have family and acquaintances in Ukraine, and may disagree with the Russian invasion. Such people also exist in and around the presidential administration, says the intelligence teacher.
Then comes an important “but”:
Putin’s great defeat
– Then it may not be so smart to blow this.
The reason is natural: It is easier to find a leak when you find out what kind of information has come out. That is why E-services around the world like to hold their cards close to their chests.
– When you go out as the Americans did before the war and as Budanov does now, there is a greater risk that the sources will be closed. If there are human sources and they are taken, they will be taken for treason and the consequences will probably be serious for them. If there are technical sources, there is talk of closing these leaks, says Røseth.
The result is the same: the supply of information from the source is stopped.
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– Information campaign
The startling claims made by Budanov may also be information Ukraine’s E-service actually hair collected, but which has a high degree of uncertainty, Røseth believes.
– The information may come from sources who have low trust, or sources who may not have as good access as they seem to have, says the intelligence teacher.
As valuable intelligence, the information may not be worth its weight in gold, but it can be useful in other ways.
– This uncertainty has not been conveyed and thus this can appear more like an information campaign, says Røseth.
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– Wishful thinking
The claim that Ukraine will soon, and almost inevitably, inflict “obvious” defeat on the Russian war machine, Røseth takes with a pinch of salt.
The e-boss Budanov does, however, make a reservation: That the West continues to send weapons and other material.
– But the statements that Russia will soon struggle hard, seems a bit like wishful thinking, says Røseth.
He points out that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has also for a long time estimated that Russia “soon” will be able to struggle to such an extent that they will be forced to take a break to regroup.
– Sees no solution
– Objectively, it would have made sense, but Russia has still not done so. They continue to just fill up more and more, even though it is piecemeal and divided, and continue to make progress on the battlefield, says the intelligence teacher.
Røseth, like an almost united Western expert corps, is of the opinion that Ukraine is quite still dependent on Western arms support.
– Selling in a message that Ukraine will soon, almost regardless, be able to strike back strongly, is a good talking point for the domestic audience in Ukraine, but it may work poorly for the foreign audience in the West. They may start to think that this might work out anyway, says the intelligence teacher.
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