Troops Marching on Their Stomachs: The Implications of the $60-a-Barrel Limit
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Prologue / Continuous miscalculations “Putin’s War”
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian military is a “war for Putin by Putin’s Putin”.
Although the scale of the war is different, the invasion of Ukraine can be called “the second Operation Barbarossa (Barbarossa)”.
As I write this on December 5, it is already day 285 since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Yesterday (December 4), at the OPEC + Cooperative Production Cut Meeting, it was decided that the current production cut and hold agreement (2mbd cut) would continue next year (mbd = million barrels per day).
The next OPEC+ Cooperative Production Reduction conference is scheduled for June 4 next year, but it has also been decided that it will be held on a case-by-case basis.
The author is paying close attention to how oil prices will move in the future as a result of the continuation of this coordinated production cut.
I will write the conclusion of this article first. Russian President V. Putin’s 70-year-old war against Ukraine will result in a decline in Russian oil and gas production.
The Russian economy is an oil and gas dependent economic structure. The Russian economy will inevitably weaken due to the decline in Russian crude oil and natural gas production, and there is a high possibility that the weakening Russian economy will become a serious indicator for Putin.
In other words, President Putin is harming Russia’s national interests, and Russia’s real enemy is President Putin himself.
In this article, I would like to examine how “Putin’s war” has impoverished the Russian economy and harmed the national interests of Russia (Russia), using my own dogmatism, prejudice and imagination.
