Russian forces are constantly advancing in Bakhmut, and probably threaten Ukraine’s most important supply line into the city.
Palle Ydstebø is lieutenant colonel and head teacher for land forces at the Norwegian Military Academy. He has the following analysis of the Russian winter offensive.
– The Russian winter offensive has failed. The Russians have gotten stuck in several places and suffered heavy losses, says Ydstebø.
According to the military expert, Russia’s goal with the winter offensive was to take all of Luhansk and Donetsk counties by the end of March.
– We are now in April and Russia has not reached its goals. They have suffered such heavy losses that they are less prepared for a spring offensive from Ukraine, says Ydstebø.
Lured them into a trap
Bakhmut is located on the front line in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Ever since last summer, there has been a very intense battle for the city.
According to the Ukrainian authorities, the battle for Bakhmut has been the longest and bloodiest of the war.
– Bakhmut has a more symbolic meaning for Russians. The fall of the city does not mean that the Russians have changed the course of the war, says Palle Ydstebø.
BIG LOSSES: Palle Ydstebø, Lieutenant Colonel, head of the section for land forces at the war school says that Russia has suffered big losses during the winter offensive. Photo: Jonas Been Henriksen / TV 2
The lieutenant colonel explains that part of the aim of defending the city from the Ukrainian side has been to inflict as great a loss on Russian forces as possible:
– Ukraine has sent out various messages about how well they stand in the city. They have lured the Russians into a trap. Throughout the Russian winter offensive, Ukraine has exploited the Russians’ symbolic need to take the city.
According to the military expert, Russia has suffered such heavy losses that it is now important to take Bakhmut so that they can send a message home that they have won in Ukraine.
– Bakhmut has become a black hole that has attracted the Russian offensive. The Russians have placed their most important forces in Bakhmut, and walked straight into the trap, Ydstebø asserts.
SHOUTING: A Ukrainian soldier shouts from his trench as he takes cover near Bakhmut. Photo: REUTERS/Lisi Niesner
Has other intentions
The American think tank Institute for the Study of War, which is partly financed by the American arms industry, reports in its latest analysis that Russia has lowered the intensity of offensive operations along the entire front line.
The think tank also reports that Moscow may try to use the upcoming Orthodox Easter celebrations in Ukraine, which begin on April 16, to call for a ceasefire out of respect for religion.
Russia also asked for a truce during Orthodox Christmas, which Ukraine at the time rejected, calling it a trap.
– Although Easter is a more important holiday than Christmas for the Orthodox Church, I think Ukraine will refuse this time too, says Ydstebø.
The military expert clarifies that a Russian proposal for a cease-fire will not be of pure intentions, but tactical:
– It may be beneficial for Russian troops to declare a ceasefire. Then they have better time to prepare for a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
TRENCHES: Ukrainian soldiers hide in trenches after an incoming Russian attack. Photos were taken on 5 April this year. Photo: REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach
Can surprise the Russians
Ukraine and Russia are now preparing for an expected spring offensive. Palle Ydstebø believes there are great chances that Ukraine will also win this one.
– There are several positions that are strategically important for Ukraine to attack. But they are quite obvious to both parties. Now it is up to Ukraine to find out what is both strategically beneficial and tactically feasible. Maybe they will manage to surprise the Russians.
The spring offensive is already well planned, but no one knows a date for sure, says Ydstebø.
DIFFICULT TERRAIN: A Ukrainian military vehicle drives on a muddy road near Bakhmut. The weather can be a big challenge in the transition from winter to spring, and military vehicles have gotten stuck in the mud several times. Photo: Photo by Aris Messinis / AFP
– The spring offensive will come at the end of April or the beginning of May at the earliest, Ydstebø believes and adds that the weather plays an important role for it to be successful.
The winter has been mild in Ukraine and now it is wet and muddy.
– The weather plays a big role because you have to maneuver large forces in the terrain, and then the ground must be dry. We have seen several photos of material that has gotten stuck in the mud, and that risk cannot be taken, says Ydstebø.
Have suffered heavy losses
Russian forces have suffered heavy losses so far in the war.
Nato-General Christopher Cavoli stated in March that Russia has lost 200,000 soldiers in Ukraine, and that the Russians have lost 2,000 tanks in the war.
– There is a large degree of uncertainty about what we know about the Russians, and there is speculation as to how much military power the Russians have left. They have lost a lot of the army and have replaced it with new and older people who lack motivation and experience, says Ydstebø.
The expert believes that it now looks like Ukraine is the party best prepared for a spring offensive.
– Ukraine has soldiers who have received training in Europe, which has raised the quality. They have built brigades from scratch for which they have material. The Russians have suffered major losses of experienced leaders, he says.
– Do we have anything to fear if Russia suffers heavy losses during this spring offensive? Could it make Russia more dangerous to the outside world?
– No, I don’t think Russia is going to commit collective suicide by resorting to nuclear weapons, states Lieutenant-Colonel Palle Ydstebø.
TOMT: Before the battle for Bakhmut, the city had close to 70,000 inhabitants, now there are only a few left. Most of them elderly who refuse to hand over the city to the Russians. Photo: REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach
