“Russian Forces Concentrate Reserves in Bakhmut Region, Delaying Ukrainian Counterattacks: Analysis by ISW”

A Ukrainian official said that in the last 24 hours, Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves in the Bakhmut region and have delayed Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hana Malyar indicated on May 19 that Russian forces have concentrated most of their reserves in the Bakhmut direction, which has slowed the pace of the Ukrainian advance.

This is said in an analysis of the front in Ukraine by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Malyar also announced that Ukrainian forces continued to counterattack in the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut and advanced with 500 meters on one flank and 1000 meters on the other.

Some Russian military bloggers noted the slowing of the Ukrainian advance and said that Ukrainian forces were unable to sustain sustained local counterattacks around Bakhmut.

Russian forces on Bakhmut’s flanks, however, probably remain weak; Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to criticize the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Army Corps of the Luhansk People’s Republic) on May 19 for its retreat from the defensive lines southwest of Ivanivskoe (6 km west of Bakhmut).

Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut most likely eliminated the threat of a Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut and have forced Russian troops to commit scarce military resources to protect against a limited and localized offensive, which was probably the intention of the Ukrainian command.

On the night of May 18-19, Russian forces launched another series of drone and missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russia fired six Kalibr cruise missiles and 22 Shahed-131/136 drones at Ukraine from the Black Sea.

The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 16 drones and three Kalibr missiles, despite the Russian Defense Ministry’s (MoD) claim that Russian forces hit all intended targets.

The head of the Dnipropetrovsk region, Sergey Lisak, reported explosions near Kryvyi Rih after Russian strikes in the area.

The representative of Ukraine’s General Intelligence Directorate (GRU) Vadim Skibitsky noted that the recent activation of Russian drone and missile strikes, as well as artillery strikes along the entire front line, are aimed at disrupting Ukrainian plans and preparations for a counteroffensive.

On May 14, the ISW already assessed that the recent increase in Russian strikes on Ukrainian rear areas is likely to be part of a new air campaign aimed at degrading Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities in the near future.

Skibitsky further noted that Russia can only produce 25 Kalibr cruise missiles, 35 Kh-101, two Daggers and 5 9M723 Iskander-M ballistic missiles per month.

Given that the Russian forces launch missile strikes on the occipital regions of Ukraine almost daily so far in May, it is likely that they are rapidly depleting their stockpiles of precision munitions, potentially at a rate that exceeds production capabilities.

President Joe Biden said he informed G7 leaders on May 19 that Washington would support a joint effort to train Ukrainian pilots of the F-16 and other fourth-generation aircraft.

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The decision marks a sharp turn in US policy regarding the fourth-generation jets in Ukraine and follows Biden’s meetings with various G7 leaders in Hiroshima, Japan, on May 19. On May 18, Yahoo News reported that Ukrainian pilots had exceeded the Pentagon’s standard expectations for F-16 flight simulator training time and would be able to fly the F-16 after only four months of traininginstead of the expected 18 months, citing an internal US Air Force assessment.

The Kremlin reports that in 2023 it spent 3.1 trillion rubles (approximately $38.7 billion) in an undisclosed portion of the Russian budget, likely to finance the war and maintain the occupied territories in Ukraine. Independent Russian news outlet Bell reported that on May 16, the Russian Ministry of Finance published data on budget spending from the beginning of 2023 totaling 11.9 trillion rubles ($148.5 billion), with only 8 .8 trillion rubles ($109.8 billion) were accounted for in Russia’s public budget, leaving 3.1 trillion rubles – over a quarter of Russia’s expenses – unaccounted for.

The Bell reported that most of the undisclosed budget items relate to defense, national security and law enforcement, and some of them may fall on social and other spending in occupied Ukraine. The Bell also reported that unspecified costs were higher than during the same period in previous years. ISW continues to assess that the Russian economy will struggle to meet the needs of the large-scale warwhich the Russian army leads in Ukraine, and to maintain the occupation of Ukrainian territories.

The G7 announced new sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine until 2024.

Controls against the circumvention of sanctions against Moscow are being tightened

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has announced that he will run for re-election for the first time as a member of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, prompting criticism from select Russian ultranationalists. The head of Russia’s Civil Solidarity movement, Georgy Fedorov, said on May 19 that Sobyanin’s candidacy for United Russia suggests that “all political processes in Russia are now possible only within the pre-existing party systema” that Russia will experience “great upheavals” and that “the non-systemic opposition in Russia has been crushed”.

Former Russian officer and ardent ultranationalist Igor Girkin reinforced Georgi’s statements and sarcastically called United Russia a “party of crooks and thieves” – a well-known slogan used by Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

Sobyanin has held the post of mayor of Moscow nominally as an independent since 2010, although his candidacy for United Russia is probably just a public formalization of his long-standing relationship with United Russia, as Sobyanin has been a member of the party since 2001. It is likely “United Russia” seeks to bolster its own popularity (which in Moscow is about 45%) with that of Sobyanin, who has 74% popularity.

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These selected ultranationalists probably reacted to Sobyanin’s statement to criticize what they saw as United Russia’s attempt to monopolize support among Russian ultranationalists, and probably did not react sincerely to the loss of an independent figure. It is also possible that the Kremlin publicly linked Sobyanin to United Russia in order to remove a nominally independent figure, regardless of his actual independence. ISW previously assessed that Kremlin likely to try to consolidate “United Russia” as the definitive pro-war party in the 2023 and 2024 elections, and Russia’s ultranationalist communities with their own political ambitions may increasingly seek to undermine these efforts.

A Ukrainian source reported that elements of two Spetsnaz brigades of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) were deployed in the border areas of Kursk Oblast to conduct counter-sabotage activities and provocations.

On May 19, the Center of Ukrainian Resistance said that the 3rd and 22nd Special Purpose Guards Brigades had deployed to Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast to prevent cross-border Ukrainian guerrilla actionsto carry out cross-border provocations and boost the morale of Russian forces.

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ISW has already assessed that such Russian deployments in the border areas are likely an attempt to pin down some of the Ukrainian forces in the border areas and disperse them from critical frontline areas.

It was previously reported that elements of the 3rd Guards Special Purpose Brigade in the Kremenna region of Luhansk Region, and elements of the 22nd Guards Brigade with special purpose was reportedthat they operated in the Orichov region in the western part of the Zaporozhye region.

It is not clear why the Russian leadership may have decided to withdraw such elements from active frontline sectors in Russian rear areas, as it is possible that these units may have suffered previous losses in recent operations and were withdrawn and redeployed to die and retool. The deployment of these units in the border areas is unlikely to have the desired informational or operational effect.

Basic extracts

• A Ukrainian official said that over the past 24 hours, Russian forces had concentrated most of their available reserves in the Bakhmut area and had slowed Ukrainian counterattacks.
• Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area most likely eliminated the threat of encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut and forced Russian troops to devote scarce military resources to defending against a limited and localized offensive, which was probably the intention of the Ukrainian command.
• On the night of May 18-19, Russian forces launched another series of drone and missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine.
• On May 19, President Joe Biden reportedly informed G7 leaders that Washington would support a joint effort to train Ukrainian pilots of the F-16 and other fourth-generation aircraft.
• The Kremlin reportedly spent 3.1 trillion rubles (roughly $38.7 billion) in an undisclosed section of the Russian budget in 2023, presumably to finance the war and maintain the occupied territories in Ukraine.
• Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin has announced that he will run for re-election for the first time as a member of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party, prompting criticism from select Russian ultranationalists.
• A Ukrainian source reported that elements of two brigades of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) were deployed in the border areas of the Kursk Region with the aim of conducting counter-sabotage activities and provocations.
• Russian sources claim that Russian troops have continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatov line.
• Russian forces have continued to conduct ground attacks in the Bakhmut region and have slightly increased the pace of their ground attacks along the line Avdiivka – Donetsk city.
• Ukrainian officials said Russian forces were preparing defenses by flooding fields in the Russian-occupied Zaporozhye region.
• Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said that as of January 1, 2023, the Russian military employed 117,400 people on contract in voluntary units.
• The Russian State Duma passed a final reading of a bill authorizing the holding of regional elections under martial law.