Russian aggression: – The West is holding its breath

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Russian troop movements to the Ukrainian border get leaders in Ukraine and NATO countries to hold their breath. Several warn about Russian invasion in the New Year. But the political development in Ukraine goes against Russia’s wishes, and increases the cost of Russian invasion enormously.

Distrust of Russia has its roots The Ukrainian Revolution. In 2013, the then President Yanukovych put a fully negotiated EU agreement in the drawer, and signaled increased cooperation with Russia. It would cost the president dearly.

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Ukrainians took to streets and demanded the resignation of the president. The square of independence in Kyiv was an expression of pro-European currents, mixed with radical and moderate ideas about the Ukrainian nation.

What changed the Ukrainian revolution? Russia went from being a friend to an opponent. In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, and has since supported the separatists in the east. At the same time, heavy Russian information and misleading campaigns seek to weaken the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government. Since 2014, the Ukrainians have confidence in Russia and Russian media host to the breaking point. Support for the customs union with Russia has collapsed. Public institutions are living under constant pressure to prove loyalty to the Ukrainian state.

De-russifisering of Ukraine. Ukraine is a multi-ethnic country. As late as in In 2012, over 30 percent of Ukrainians considered themselves Russians or with a Ukrainian-Russian mixed identity. In 2017, the share had fallen to well below 20 percent. The proportion who consider themselves Ukrainians increased correspondingly.

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The language issue has an identity-building effect. Even Russian-speaking Ukrainians increasingly consider Ukrainian as their mother tongue. The status of the Ukrainian language has increased. In bookstores, contemporary literature is in Ukrainian, and the Russian segment is largely reduced to some Russian classics. The Ukrainianization is also the result of willful politics, where language laws and the removal of Russian TV channels have stimulated increased use of Ukrainian.

Several identify with the Ukrainian state, and fewer emphasize Ukraine as an East Slavic country. As the Canadian Ukrainian researcher Dominique Arel has pointed out, “Ukraine is becoming more Ukrainian”. The divide between a provincial western Ukraine and a pro-Russian eastern Ukraine has moved very far east. Even in government-controlled eastern Ukraine – at the separatist border – the majority now identify themselves as Ukrainians. Traditionally, these are areas with strong connections to Russia.

Since 2014, support for the Russian regime and Russia as identity markers has fallen sharply. In parallel, Ukraine is looking west. Russian politics strengthens the enemy images of Russia, Europe strengthens its role as a guide. Illustrative enough: After the revolution, the EU agreement was signed almost immediately.

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In Ukraine it is now official policy to apply to the EU. Desire for NATO integration is increasingly followed in practice. Soviet-backed officers are being replaced by younger, more NATO-friendly officers who speak English and have been educated in the United States and other NATO countries. Land as Britain and the United States train Ukrainian soldiers and supplies weapons.

But there are clouds on the horizon. The positivity of Europe and the United States coexists with the feeling of standing alone against Russia. Russia supports separatists in the east, troops on the border create insecurity. Pro-Russian narratives – mixed with disinformation – are part of the media landscape, albeit to an increasingly lesser extent. This must face Ukraine and the country’s military every day. A prevailing view is that Russian warfare in Ukraine is only an expression of Russian aggressive intentions, but that Russian targets are at least as aggressive towards countries that use more covert non-military means.

In Western Europe the threat picture is less serious. Russia is a security challenge and rival. But few consider the country an enemy. Different perceptions of threats make Ukrainians at times feel that support from Western Europe and the United States is not enough.

Finally more than applause

So where is Ukraine going? Will the national, but pro-European, development continue? Success or failure depends on the ability to reform over time, and increase economic growth. It will also be very important if Europe and the United States are able to provide support militarily, and for political and economic reform.

Ukraine has strengthened militarily since 2014. The Ukrainian-European identity project removes the country from the Russian world of ideas. Continued aggressive Russian policy will further strengthen this development. Ukrainians’ confidence in Russia has been severely weakened. The few supporters left in Ukraine are fewer and more pressured than ever since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Russia has created a more hostile and pro-European Ukraine. An invasion will thus be even more unpopular, costly and difficult than before. This is what the Kremlin regime is painfully aware of. And that has made military escalation an absolute last resort in the Kremlin’s toolbox in Ukraine.

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