Aware of the danger that the Ukrainians could seize the initiative and launch a counteroffensive, Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in this area and elsewhere along the front line.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes again about the “operational pause” taken by the Russian military after the capture of Lisichansk in the Luhansk region.
On Monday, the Russian president, after listening to the defense minister’s report, said that the units involved in the fighting in the Luhansk region “must rest, increase their combat capabilities.” Two days later, the Russian Ministry of Defense also announced “activities to replenish the combat capacity”. ISW experts and other analysts call this an “operational pause” and point out that the pause does not mean a complete cessation of hostilities by Russia.
However, earlier ISW reports indicated that the pause did not mean a complete cessation of hostilities by Russia.
These operations involve smaller forces compared to the attacks on Severodonetsk and Lisichansk and pursue more limited and localized targets with less determination and willingness to take casualties, ISW analysts wrote.
When Russia’s military command decides it has properly prepared to resume a major offensive, it will likely resume the ground offensive with more troops and with greater determination than it is showing now, experts predict.
“The exit from the operational pause may be gradual and difficult to notice immediately, just as the transition to it appeared to be gradual. A clever campaign plan would aim to achieve just such an effect: to convince the adversary that it is not foreseen and not no pause occurs – or that it will be too short to benefit the enemy by convincing him that he has no opportunity to take the initiative and counterattack.
They confirm their conclusion that, having completed the capture of Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, Russian forces clearly need to rebuild their combat power and stockpile before launching another large-scale offensive operation. Numerous reports from various sources indicate that they are doing just that, ISW points out.
–
