As we have just had three very springy days, our eyes are now on the week to come, which should be characterized by the return of slightly low-pressure, relatively heavier and perhaps even stormy weather. Indeed, the current anticyclone which protects us from disturbances will gradually retract southwards, towards Africa. At the same time, low-pressure geopotentials will settle in the British Isles and the near Atlantic.
It should be noted that this low-pressure context will intensify throughout next week, also inducing a relative drop in temperatures, however without risk of freezing this time. The Mediterranean regions will not be the most exposed to these stormy risks, but convective overflows will still occur there. We take stock below.
For tomorrow Sunday: we will have to take advantage of the beautiful morning sunshine! Because at midday, a thick cloudy veil will rise from the south, invading the whole region for the afternoon. Some showers may occur between the Pyrénées-Orientales, Aude and the Cévennes in particular, more rarely on the plains of Hérault and Gard. This risk will be brief and very punctual. Nothing significant in itself. From Monday, clouds will dominate throughout the day over the entire region.
They could give showers on our departments, with a more significant probability between the Pyrénées-Orientales, the Aude and the west of the Hérault. In these sectors, the mass will acquire a weak to moderate atmospheric instability, suggesting a small localized stormy character. Between East Hérault, Gard and Lozère, the showers should be less pronounced and more localized. See the raw map below of the ARPEGE model:
During the night from Monday to Tuesday but especially Tuesday during the day, rain and stormy precipitation will affect the neighboring PACA region. Quite frequent overflows are to be expected in the Gard, a southern and eastern part of Lozère, or even in eastern Hérault. More localized showers will continue to occur between Ouest Hérault, Aude and the Pyrénées-Orientales. We underline that in spite of a weak atmospheric instability, the risk of thunderstorms will be present but will remain rather limited, as much in its extent as in its intensity.
Between Wednesday and Friday, we could switch to a classic convection in spring, called “diurnal”. It would be a question of having fairly bright mornings, then large cumulus clouds will bud, until they give thunderstorms in places. The relief areas and the hinterland of our departments will be more exposed, while the seaside would be more marginalized from this risk, but this will largely be confirmed later. We will have a fairly cloudy and unstable week anyway.
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