The chance that you will be admitted to hospital is twice as high with infection with the delta variant than with the alpha variant of the coronavirus. Researchers from the University of Cambridge and Public Health England conclude this after evaluating more than 40,000 corona cases in England between the end of March and the end of May 2021.
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Door Redactie Online
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The results, published in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases, mainly concern the risk to unvaccinated people. The data do not allow conclusions for fully vaccinated individuals.
So far, the research has mainly focused on the higher transferability of the delta variant. Little research had been done on the risk of a serious course of the disease. The scientists used the results of tens of thousands of positive tests assigned to either delta or alpha through genetic analysis. Almost 9,000 went back to the delta variant, about 35,000 were attributed to the alpha variant. The scientists compared these data to the number of hospital admissions.
After adjusting the data for factors such as age and demographics, which usually increase the risk of developing serious disease, they found that those infected with the delta variant were on average 2.26 times more likely to die within two weeks of the test. to be admitted to hospital.
Vaccination crucial to reduce the risk of admission
Of the more than 40,000 cases included in the study, only 1.8 percent had been fully vaccinated, which the researchers interpret as further confirmation that the vaccines are highly effective. Of those infected, 74 percent were unvaccinated, 24 percent only partially vaccinated. Due to the limited amount of data, the researchers cannot make statements about a higher risk of serious disease in vaccinated people.
“Our analysis shows that without vaccination, delta outbreaks pose a significantly greater burden to the health system than an alpha epidemic,” said one of the study’s authors, Anne Presanis of the University of Cambridge. “Getting fully vaccinated is critical to reducing the risk of symptomatic infection and reducing the risk of developing severe delta infection and hospitalization.”
One of the study’s weaknesses, the authors say, is that they had no data on their patients’ previous illnesses. It is also possible that the rules for hospital admissions have changed during the trial period. In any case, the researchers have tried to minimize these factors in their calculations as much as possible.
