Rise in Infections Expected as Flu and Coronavirus Follow Autumn Weather

When the temperatures drop and autumn really sets in, a new wave of flu and coronavirus will probably also follow.

In Denmark, Viggo Andreasen, associate professor at the PandemiX Center at Roskilde University, tells newspaper Jyllands-Posten that the number of cases of infection in the country has roughly tripled in the last month.

And during the next few months, the number of infections will rise further, according to the researcher.

– May have gone under the radar

Espen Rostrup Nakstad, assistant director of the Directorate of Health, writes in an SMS to Dagbladet that one is also seeing an increase in infections in Norway.

– When we look at figures for sick reports, admissions and virus monitoring this autumn, we were at a fairly normal level of respiratory infections for August, but now it seems to be rising quite a bit, he writes.

Assistant director of health Espen Rostrup Nakstad explains what the most important advice is before Christmas. Reporter: Mia Engenes Bratlie. Video: Dagbladet TV Show more

– Quite likely

The Danish researcher estimates that as many as half of the population in the country may become infected with corona before Christmas.

– It looks as if corona will arrive early this year. We must expect that there will be an extensive epidemic by Christmas, says Andreasen.

However, Nakstad believes that the increase in infections will probably not be as rapid in this country. This is because the new variant, BA 2.86, has not yet spread significantly in Norway, he explains.

Corona outbreaks cause trouble

– I don’t think half the population will be infected before Christmas, but it is quite likely that more than half will be infected during the winter months. This can go faster if the new BA 2.86 variant gets a foothold in the autumn. So far it has not happened.

Last winter season, many Norwegians were infected with corona and influenza, writes Nakstad.

– Probably more than half the population was ill, he writes.

Create risk assessment

To Dagbladet, department director Are Stuwitz Berg at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (FHI) says that they consider it likely that a large proportion of the population will be infected this winter as well.

– How big, when it comes, and whether the infection will come as one big wave or several waves, is difficult to say for sure.

But with cooler weather, there is also more respiratory infection, because the air becomes drier and it is thus easier for small droplets to spread. In addition, we are closer to each other indoors, and our mucous membranes can become more susceptible when it is cold.

RISK ASSESSMENT: Senior doctor Are Stuwitz Berg at the Institute of Public Health (FHI) states that FHI will make a risk assessment for the winter season. Photo: Torstein Bøe / NTB Show more

When asked if FHI has any estimate of how many Norwegians will be infected this season, Berg replies that FHI plans to make a risk assessment for the winter season.

– We have to get back to that, he says. In Norway, it is now mainly the EG.5 and XBB.1.16 variants that dominate, and which is causing the increase in infections that we have seen this autumn.

Masks on planes

In Switzerland too, the corona infection is increasing considerably, and the Swiss Moderna CEO, Dan Staner, says in an interview with avisa look that «the virus does not sleep».

He also says that he himself has started wearing a mask on the plane.

Nevertheless, Nakstad does not believe that this is something that the infection control authorities in Europe would recommend to a particularly large extent.

Gets a gag in the conservative media

– But of course it can appear in some places in some countries. In some situations, it may still be a good idea to use a mask on an individual level, for example if you are sick and cough a lot and have to visit a place with many people, writes the assistant director of health.

Good immunity

It is unlikely, according to Nakstad, that there may be face mask orders and other more invasive infection control measures in society.

– The reason is that population immunity is now quite good and fewer and fewer are becoming seriously ill, he writes.

Dane Viggo Andreasen also emphasizes that one should not panic in Denmark.

Must go to jail for fraud

The coronavirus has changed, and the vast majority of Danes have already been infected. In addition, most adults in the country are vaccinated with multiple doses, the researcher points out.

He nevertheless encourages the older population, who have not yet been vaccinated, to become so

2023-09-14 10:32:25


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