The day after Thanksgiving was a dud for the retailers and brands most dependent on Black Friday.
That’s a troubling sign for chains and the U.S. economy, which needs to keep consumer confidence strong to avoid a recession. It also raises the risk that the rest of the holiday shopping season will be disappointing, forcing retailers to cut prices further.
According to Bloomberg Second Measure, which analyzes U.S. credit and debit card transaction data, a group of 40 companies that use the holiday season as a higher percentage of their annual sales than their peers have a higher percentage of Black Friday sales (median ) was -4%. This is a steeper drop than in 2022.
Sales Disappoint for Retailers Most Reliant on Black Friday
Black Friday share of observed sales vs change in Black Friday sales
Source: Bloomberg Second Measure
Bloomberg looked at retailers whose Black Friday sales accounted for a particularly high percentage of their sales, from big-box stores like Walmart and Home Depot to clothing chains Abercrombie & Fitch and Gap.
Black Friday represents more than five times the average daily sales volume, according to the group’s median estimate. This is the highest level since 2019 and means these retailers have increased their reliance on Black Friday, even as the number of bargain hunters has declined.
According to Adobe Analytics, online spending on Black Friday increased by 7.5% year over year. This could signal a shift in spending from traditional Black Friday-heavy retailers analyzed by Bloomberg to discount stores, as well as experiences and travel.
Black Friday online consumer spending hits record high – Adobe
Sales at discount stores like Walmart have been rising, which may help explain the phenomenon, one of the few bright spots in Bloomberg Second Measure’s data. Even Amazon.com, where spending tends to increase right before Christmas, saw Black Friday sales increase 12%.
Amazon Sees Major Black Friday Gains
Black Friday share of observed sales and change in observed sales
Source: Bloomberg Second Measure
But at most other retailers analyzed by Bloomberg, Black Friday spending declined, in some cases by double digits.
Original title:Slow Black Friday for Best Buy, Gap Is Bad Omen for US Economy(excerpt)
2023-11-29 18:08:00
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