It too will be in a “V” or “U” shape. Like expectations placed in the form of an economic recovery, investments in renewable energies are also expected to rebound next year, after a historic low this year.
According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) published Tuesday evening, the Covid-19 crisis will make fiscal year 2020 the first of the millennium during which the number of new renewable energy production facilities will have decreased . This slowdown has known causes: disruptions in the production of equipment and containment measures. And others that are less obvious, like blockages in the financing of installations. Clean energy production capacity will nevertheless increase by 6% this year, reaching 167 gigawatts, forecasts the IEA. This will be 13% less, compared to installations in 2019.
Need for confidence
In its study, the IEA also calls for the recovery to be combined with decarbonization of the economy. “The drop in the cost of renewables will not be enough to protect them from the uncertainties created by the Covid-19, worries its director, Fatih Birol. It is important that stimulus packages can bring confidence to investors. ” One of the risks, for example, is that the fall in oil prices – and therefore a potential opportunistic increase in demand – will lead to abandoning plans to do without fossil fuels.
After sinking to less than $ 12 a barrel in late April, oil prices are now hitting $ 30. But in December, they were still twice as high. Sufficient difference to halt the energy transition? “This period is over, it’s a discourse of the 2000s,” scans Frédéric Potelle. The Bordier bank analyst cites the example of the Danish wind power giant Vestas on the stock market, which “held up very well in the market stress phase and the collapse of the barrel”. This is also what other experts point out. Listed or not, the assets linked to renewable energies held the shock, while those linked to fossil fuels collapsed during this particular spring.
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“In a short-term reflection, it might seem interesting to install a fossil fuel heating, concedes Frank Rutschmann, head of the renewable energy section at the Federal Office of Energy (SFOE). But in the medium term, the savings made during the first months could very quickly turn into additional costs. We expect oil prices to rise after the health crisis. Renewable energies will then be more attractive again. ”
Investments in renewable energies have effectively been curbed since March. As in all industries. But Frédéric Potelle is convinced of this: “This does not change the fundamental movement. Covid or not, the awareness is there and it’s going to accelerate. ” In Europe, he stresses again, the recovery plans explicitly mention this issue. And in the United States, the incentive program for wind power installations has just been extended to 2021, to take account of the inevitable delays.
An approach that will last
A green wave that low-cost oil or fuel oil will not stop. This is also the opinion of Martin Kernen, head of the French-speaking agency for energy for the economy (Aenec) – an advisory association set up by Swiss business circles. “The technical managers of the companies we support have a strong conviction. Some may have taken advantage of this to fill their tanks with fuel oil or gas. And investments will be postponed to less uncertain economic times. But for most of them, reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions is a commitment, a general approach that will last. “
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From a structural point of view, a problem nevertheless persists, according to Felix Nipkow, renewable energy expert at the Swiss Energy Foundation (SES): “The prices of CO2 are too low, they do not reflect the real costs , such as climate damage. If they increase, the operating costs of fossil fuel power plants will also increase. This would improve the competitiveness of renewable energy, which does not emit CO2 and therefore does not pay tax. “
Increased demand for electricity
In Switzerland, the revision of the CO2 law, which will be debated by parliament next month, provides for an increase in the fuel tax, an increase in the price of fuels and a tax on airline tickets. A device which aims by 2030 to halve CO2 emissions compared to their 1990 level and carbon neutrality in 2050.
“This decarbonation implies more electrification,” continues Felix Nipkow, due to the replacement of oil heaters by heat pump systems, or an increase in the fleet of electric vehicles, for example. What potentially boost the development of renewable energies – hydraulic, photovoltaic and wind – to meet this increase in demand for electricity.
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With the launch of dozens of zero-emission programs in 2019, 2020 was to be the most prolific year in terms of new clean energy production capacity in the world, says the IEA. This will not be the case. But despite the Covid-19, the rate of progression will be similar to that of last year. Resistance to the crisis, which the agency director also welcomes. But, he concludes, this is not an absolute guarantee. Fatih Birol is concerned that current health and economic challenges are driving governments to lose sight of the climate goals they have set for themselves in recent years.
The Swiss wind turbine facing headwinds
At the forefront of hydropower, Switzerland is seriously behind other renewable sources, notes the Swiss Energy Foundation (SES). In particular wind, hampered by complex procedures
For the time being, if Switzerland is well placed on hydropower (almost 60% of the electricity produced), it is lagging behind solar and wind power, compared to its European neighbors: it only covers 4.2% of its needs with electricity drawn from the wind or the sun, against more than 50% for Denmark and 33% for Germany, according to estimates by the Swiss Energy Foundation (SES).
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Wind power, in particular, is anecdotal, with only 37 turbines installed, covering only 0.2% of Swiss current consumption, compared to 15% in Europe and 6% worldwide, compares the Federal Office of energy (SuisseEnergie) in a report. On a technical level, however, “the wind conditions in Switzerland are quite comparable to those of our neighbors,” notes Lionel Perret, representative of Switzerland in IEA activities related to wind energy. “We have locations that have a wind almost similar to the North Sea,” adds Frank Rutschmann, head of the renewable energy section at SFOE, emphasizing the complementarity of wind power with hydraulics and photovoltaics, two technologies. less effective in winter.
More incentives
The main obstacle is the complex regulations and procedures, in terms of noise, safety and environmental protection, which hamper projects, giving rise to multiple appeals, the two experts point out. “Today 15 projects are awaiting the decisions of the authorities after more than ten years of procedure, with the cantons, cantonal courts, then federal courts, without one can estimate the remaining duration”, underlines Lionel Perret. Certain projects like Sainte-Croix and Crêt-Meuron, on the crests of the Jura, have been suspended for more than twenty-two years, adds the expert, who pleads for a framework to fix the duration of the procedures “at five or ten years to the maximum, while guaranteeing democratic rules ”.
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In general, the SES calls for its part to improve the conditions for investment in renewables in Switzerland, by providing the future energy law, in consultation since early April, with more incentives, suggests one of the Foundation experts, Felix Nipkow. As it stands, Bern is putting in its revision on single premiums for new installations (hydraulic, photovoltaic, biomass), “adapted to the private sector for small installations aiming at self-supply (little bureaucracy)”, according to the expert . But which do not protect the investors of large power stations serving the network from the risks of price fluctuations, he adds.
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For these, he recommends a floating market premium system, with a production price determined by the supplier via a call for tenders (to guarantee competition), inspired by what is done in Europe: if the average price from the falling market, the supplier is guaranteed to receive the price initially set in its offer; if, conversely, its price is lower than that of the market, it receives the difference in the form of a bonus. “Without that, investments will not be made in Switzerland and the country will depend on imports from abroad,” warns Felix Nipkow.
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