The Brazilian reaches its last round with the race to escape tapered relegation. After the results of this Monday, the fight was concentrated in four teams: Grêmio, Bahia, Juventude and Cuiabá. Of these, only two will escape.
According to the Department of Mathematics of the Federal University of Minas Gerais, Grêmio, ranked 18th with 40 points, has the highest risk: 97.5%. Although it is currently out of the Z-4 (it is 16th, with 43), Bahia comes right behind, with 51.8%.
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Juventude, which opens the relegation zone with the same 43 (but with one less victory than Bahia), has a 48.1% probability of falling. Cuiabá, even having reached 46 points after the victory over Fortaleza, is still not totally free from the Serie B threat: it registers 2.7%.
The risks take into account not only the score but also the level of difficulty that each one will have in the last round. Grêmio will receive the champion Atlético-MG. Bahia will visit Fortaleza, which is still fighting for the G4. Juventude will host Corinthians, a direct competitor of the Ceará team and which has yet to confirm its fourth place. Finally, Cuiabá will host Santos, who still have minimal chances of a place in Libertadores.
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