The question is whether this scenario is feasible. Major cities in the east continue to resist. The Russian army has not yet been able to capture the almost half Russian-speaking city of Kharkov, which has been under attack for a few days now. In addition, the Russians have created a lot of bad blood with their attacks, says Deen.
“Where in the past many Russian-speaking people lived in the east of Ukraine who felt culturally connected with Russia, this has clearly decreased since 2014. There is also a lot of resistance against the invasion here. And of course throwing bombs on a city is the fastest way.” to forfeit all sympathy.”
Plan C: Take what you can get
If Plan B also fails, Putin will want to expand his influence at least in the south, linking occupied Crimea and the Donbas. There is a lot of movement on the southern front right now. This is where the military makes the biggest strides. Kherson, a city about the size of Utrecht, is the first larger city to be taken by the Russian army and the important port city of Mariupol is being fought over hard.
In this scenario, too, the end of the war is not in sight. Deen: “How does Putin intend to deal with a hostile population? If there is a puppet government in Kiev, or the country is divided, there is a good chance that they will end up in a protracted guerrilla war. Do they want to ‘purify the entire East'” ‘ from pro-Western Ukrainians? That’s impossible, of course.”
Plan D: A Compromise Without Losing Face
The war may end at the negotiating table. Although there are no signs to indicate that yet. Russia wants Ukraine to be demilitarized and to recognize the annexation of Crimea. Unacceptable demands for the West. But because a protracted and unwinnable war is not a good prospect for Putin either, he could be forced to look for a compromise that both sides can live with.
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