US and Western officials are now looking at a whole new scenario for Putin’s war in Ukraine, according to CNN.
To date, Russian authorities have only referred to the war as “a special military operation.” At the same time, they have banned the use of words such as “invasion” and “war” in the Russian public.
Now Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi in the Swedish army believes that the authorities in Russia themselves can decide to use exactly these words, as part of a new strategy.
– 200,000 new soldiers
– If Putin now says that there is actually a war against Ukraine, then he can call in reserves and conscripts in addition to the soldiers who have so far fought in the neighboring country, Paasikivi tells Dagbladet.
– How many new soldiers are we talking about?
Conscription applies in theory to a very large part of the population. In reality, I think there may be a number between 100,000 and 200,000 new soldiers, he says.
– The problem for Putin is that these may be taken from the Russian economy, and it will not tolerate this in the long run, but it is a possibility, he says.
OBERSTLØYTNANT: Joakim Paasikivi ved den svenske Forsvarshøyskolen. Photo: Försvarshögskolan.
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By going public and declaring the previously mentioned “military operation” as actual warit gives Putin the opportunity to demand the mobilization of reserve forces and Home Guard soldiers, under Russian law.
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Western service personnel say that precisely military labor is what Russia now desperately needs. It is estimated that at least 10,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since Russia invaded Ukraine two months ago. Russian authorities, on the other hand, report that close to 1,000 have fallen.
This information appears in a article by CNN.
– Nazi West
To date, between 100,000 and 190,000 Russian soldiers have traveled to Ukraine to fight. Russian authorities have claimed that Russian troops are fighting against a Nazi regime and that they must liberate the oppressed Ukrainian people.
Many are now speculating whether Putin will use the occasion on May 9 as an opportunity to appeal to the Russian people and ask for further support in the war against “Nazism”.
“I think there is a possibility that Putin and the Kremlin will claim that there are not only Nazis in Ukraine, but that there is also a Nazi West they must fight together,” Paasikivi told Dagbladet.
– What can such a development entail?
– Then the war will not stay inside Ukraine. Here you can discuss what will be the West’s response, but you can imagine an offensive of Western aircraft in what will be a no-fly zone. This means fighting Russian aircraft in the airspace over Ukraine, and it will be a very dangerous situation, he says.
– It is difficult to see that the West will sit and let this happen after having invested so much collectively in Ukraine and given them a chance. That you should then let the Russians win, I have little faith in that, says Paasikivi.
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Feast day
Ever since 1965, 20 years after the end of World War II, May 9 has been a public holiday in the country marking victory over Nazi Germany.
The date is now approaching again, and with it also speculation that Putin will use the opportunity to declare victory and a successful “military operation” in Ukraine.
– Russia now wants to release forces and push up against the Donbas west in the Donetsk region. I think they want to end the match in Mariupol to have something to show by May 9.
That is what the associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, Tom Røseth, told Dagbladet on Tuesday.
EXPERT: Associate professor and head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, Tom Røseth. Photo: The Armed Forces
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– The day is connected with the victory over Nazi Germany. This is important for Moscow, for the Kremlin and for Putin. Now it is also important to show that you are fighting against the Nazis in Ukraine, he continues.
Paasikivi also believes it is likely that such a formulation may come from Putin and Russia during the selection.
– It may be an appropriate time to say that they have freed Donbas from “Nazis and drug addicts”, as they have previously said. I think that is likely, although Lavrov says that they do not relate to any date. I think Lavrov says that only because things are not going according to plan in Ukraine now, says Paasikivi.
– In any case, I do not think the victory speech will have any particular contact with reality, he concludes.
Lavrov-nekt
Russia is not trying to end the war in Ukraine by May 9, the day the country marks the end of World War II, says Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Western intelligence, analysts and officials have wondered whether President Vladimir Putin wants to declare a kind of victory on May 9.
Russia will not rush to complete the so-called “military special operation” by then, according to Lavrov.
“The military will not artificially adapt its actions to any date, including Victory Day,” Lavrov said in an interview with Italian Mediaset.
MOSCOW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says they will not end the attacks in Ukraine as a result of the May 9 celebrations. Photo: AP.
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– The pace of operation in Ukraine depends, first and foremost, on the need to minimize any risk to the civilian population and Russian military personnel, Lavrov claims.
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