The Ukrainian offensive is a headache for Vladimir Putin’s army, which is now openly criticized on television. The invading army can crumble, says the expert. What does Putin do then?
Both in Russian military blogs – which give an overview of Russian defense circles – and on TV, Putin’s army receives harsh criticism. On the battlefield, the army fights mightily:
Ukraine has recaptured large areas in Kharkiv, still has an offensive underway in Kherson, threatened Crimea with rocket attacks this summer, and is fighting in Donbas, where the Russians have yet to take control.
The question is whether the Russian military is collapsing and what Putin will do about it. There have been warnings that Putin will threaten nuclear weapons – perhaps he will also use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine – or step up bombing of Ukrainian cities because he is cornered.
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Ydstebø balls
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But Lieutenant Colonel Palle Ydstebø, who has closely followed the war in Ukraine as a head teacher at the Staff School, outlines another alternative.
– Putin can probably create the narrative that fits any situation, including a military defeat in Ukraine. Russian TV has already begun to present this “special military operation” as a defensive war against NATO and the West, where Ukraine is a proxy force of the West, Ydstebø told NTB.
– Then Russia can lose the whole of Ukraine, but present it as a victory in the defensive war because no foreign force has set foot on Russian soil, he says.
– The West is the main enemy
Nupi researcher Jakub Godzimirski says there has been a shift in the Russian debate towards whether it is the West that is actually being fought in Ukraine, but that those who believe Russia can beat the West must gain control of the West. reality. The West is many times stronger, he points out.
– This means that Putin can use it as a justification for choosing to withdraw from Ukraine, but I think Putin can bet very deeply on it, Godzimirski tells NTB.
– If we think about what Putin can sit down and consider as a solution for him, it is difficult to imagine that he can recognize that Russia has suffered a defeat in Ukraine. I think he will use even more brute force to hit Ukraine harder, and then this will continue for some time, says the researcher.
However, he says there are more people around Putin who are now speaking critically, covertly or openly.
– Perhaps there is a group around Putin who realizes that this will cost more than it seems and advises him to give up or replace him, says Godzimirski.
The televised debate brought an expert to bed
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Tor Bukkvoll
Chief Researcher at the Defense Research Institute (FFI)
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In Russia, support for the war in Ukraine has declined slightly, but polls still show that only half support it. Most Russians are apathetic, said war researcher Ilmari Käihkö of the Aleksanteri Institute VG recently.
Over the weekend, the Russians were served a message they rarely get on TV:
– It is impossible to defeat the Ukrainian army.
The message was delivered by former Duma member Boris Nadezhdin on the Gazprom-owned television channel NTV in a debate. TV channels are perhaps the most important tool in Putin’s propaganda apparatus and this is where ordinary Russians get their information.
– I was surprised that this was actually on TV, Defense Research Institute chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll tells NTB.
He says there is a lot of logic in Ydstebø’s analysis that Putin can describe a defeat in Ukraine as a victory. That it is a tempting thought that cannot be excluded, but that it can be wishful thinking.
– It’s a captivating thought. I can’t rule it out. But I wonder if it is possible to sell such a version in Russia, if so it must be possible for Putin to say something, says Bukkvoll.
One thing that can speak for this is that you have already seen Putin on TV and say that Russia has lost nothing in the war in Ukraine, despite the numerous soldiers who have demonstrably fallen.
– A turning point
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Tormod Heier
Professor of Military Strategy and Operations at the Norwegian Staff School
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– What has happened now is a turning point in the war, it is too early to say that it is the turning point itself, but it is certainly a turning point, says Bukkvoll on Ukraine’s success in Kharkiv.
Tormod Heier, professor of military strategy, says it is too early to say that the battle for Kharkiv has been won.
– Partly because it is unclear how much the fighting has impacted Ukrainian forces. But also because it is not clear whether the Kremlin leadership will begin to listen to the nationalists and the military, who have long hoped for greater mobilization to win the war, Heier told NTB.
However, he considers the battle for the city of Kharkiv won and calls it an almost impregnable bastion just a few miles from the Russian border.
– What will the Kremlin sacrifice?
– Everything now depends on what the Kremlin leadership is willing to sacrifice in terms of new human and material resources in eastern Ukraine. Because there is no doubt that a large part of the Russian forces are mentally and materially weakened. Part of the problem is that the Russians are slowly but surely wearing themselves out in a quagmire. In Europe’s second largest country, against Europe’s second largest defense, Heier says.
He says Ukraine’s success in Kharkiv and missile attacks on Crimea show that Ukraine can also threaten the Russians in the south and Donbas.
– The Ukrainian general staff followed the textbook and did a lot, says Heier.
Bukkvoll says the offensive in Kharkiv is more successful than even the Ukrainians imagined. It is important to maintain morale, but also the support of the West, he says.
– The second is that they made it difficult for Russia to take over the rest of Donetsk County. They should have had an attack axis south of Izium to take the rest of Donetsk and now that possibility is gone, Bukkvoll says.
He points out that Ukraine can also fall into the trap and stretch its forces, as Russia appears to have done.
– But it seems they didn’t stop in Kherson or Donbas. For now, they seem to have enough to attack on a broad front. We don’t know how large the losses were, but it could be a limiting factor, Bukkvoll says.
– Ukraine has mobilized and has training forces for several months now, so they are able to fight more effectively than the Russians. They expose their forces to less risk than the Russians, he says.
Make war with the United States
In addition to Western arms and intelligence support, which enabled Ukraine to eliminate Russian targets behind the front lines, another element is important in recent developments. According to the American media, Ukraine has received help from the United States for the so-called “war games”, which describe how a military operation could take place.
– It is probably the case that Americans are simply more involved in operational plans than in the past, Bukkvoll says.
– It is important to follow what Russia is saying about the objectives of the war. One thing that could be a defining moment here is the further development in the fight against morale on the Russian side. If it gets worse and worse, it can crumble. One can imagine that it will not be the Kremlin that will decide the outcome, but the individual Russian defense soldiers, Bukkvoll says.
One possible outcome could be that the soldiers simply surrender. Few people know what Putin’s next move will be then.
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