It’s the UEFA Champions League semifinal in which nobody knows who to root for. Paris Saint-Germain and RB Leipzig are two clubs that have made many enemies among soccer fans, but not for the way they play. Instead, it’s what each club seems to represent.
PSG are one of two clubs — the other being Manchester City — to be state-owned. RB Leipzig are seen as a glorified marketing project for Red Bull. Whatever you think of either team or its ownership, both have proven to be pretty good at the whole “playing soccer” thing. Both are also on the verge of reaching the Champions League final and hoisting their first Champions League trophy.
While I have a slight lean toward PSG being the team to move on, there’s not much value at all on betting them to do so. Luckily, I’ve found three other spots to take advantage of.
All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
Over 2.5 Goals (-160)
Oh, there will be goals, my friends. That is something I’m quite certain of. PSG barely managed to get by Atalanta in the last round, needing two stoppage-time goals to overcome a 1-0 deficit (and break my Atalanta +250 ticket-holding heart in the process), but they deserved the goals. Using xG, PSG outscored Atalanta 2.8-0.9 in the match, so they were a bit unlucky not to have scored more.
And given some of the chances Neymar missed, it might have been a 4-1 final.
I think we’ll see more of those chances find the back of the net in this match, particularly if Kylian Mbappe is healthy enough to play more than the 30 minutes he did against Atalanta. PSG became an entirely different team once he came on, and it’s possible they can get to three goals on their own here. But odds are they won’t have to, which brings me to my next play.
Both Teams To Score (-160)
I talked to my CBSSports.com colleague Chip Patterson over the weekend, and he referred to the Both Teams To Score bet as “the Mr. Rogers of gambling.” It’s true! It feels like you’re just rooting for everybody to do well and have fun, and after the match, we can all get some ice cream.
Anyway, I don’t think the odds of Leipzig being shut out in this match are great. The team scored twice against Atletico Madrid in the quarterfinal despite managing only 0.5 xG. That’s what Atletico Madrid does to you, though. You don’t get a lot of great chances and instead must rely on converting the limited opportunities you get. Leipzig did that.
I expect things to be a little more open against PSG, even if PSG have been excellent defensively itself. They managed six clean sheets in nine UCL matches, but four of them came against Galatasaray and Club Brugge. In five matches against teams from Europe’s top five leagues, PSG allowed 1.0 goals and 1.24 xG per match. Still good numbers, but nothing that keeps me from thinking Leipzig will strike at least once. Of course, that’s also partially due to my faith in Leipzig’s manager Julian Nagelsmann to figure out how best to attack PSG.
Neymar To Score (+100)
Neymar didn’t score against Atalanta, and he should have. He had six shots overall, with two on target, good enough for an xG of 1.0. It was the first time he started a UCL match this season and didn’t find the back of the net.
The trend will start anew on Tuesday. Neymar caught a lot of grief for the missed chances against Atalanta, but that didn’t change the fact that he was the best player on the field. He’ll be the best player on the field against Leipzig as well. Getting even money odds on him scoring almost feels like stealing.
So who wins PSG vs. RB Leipzig? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the PSG vs. RB Leipzig money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that’s up an eye-popping 13,800 percent.
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