Analysts say Prigozhin wants to use this “victory” in Soledar as a bargaining tool to raise his profile in Russia.
“The subsequent mention by the Russian Ministry of Defense of the Wagner forces in response to public outcry testifies to a significant “victory” for Prigozhin, which will strengthen him as a decisive participant in this war,” experts write.
Prigozhin needed a victory in Soledar to prove to Russian President Vladimir Putin that his forces were better than a conventional army.
At the same time, Putin may take steps to build defense bloggers loyal to the Defense Ministry to undermine Prigozhin’s efforts to assert himself.
CEC head Alexander Sidyakin, State Duma deputy from United Russia Artem Turovyi and “head” of the “DPR” Denis Pushilin met on January 13 with several bloggers.
High-ranking Putin allies presented a group of military correspondents, including Alexander Sladkov and a journalist working for Wargonzo, with an official letter of thanks signed by Andrei Turchak, secretary of the General Council of the United Russia party.
This is the latest in a string of Kremlin efforts to develop ties with select military bloggers who were willing to sell out in exchange for political prestige.
Key findings from ISW analysts
- The Defense Ministry’s initial statement, which did not mention the Wagner group, caused a significant backlash in the Russian media, forcing Shoigu to acknowledge the involvement of mercenaries.
- Prigozhin is likely looking to use the Soledar victory as a bargaining tool to raise his profile in Russia.
- Putin may be taking steps to build a cadre of defense bloggers loyal to the Defense Ministry to undermine Prigozhin’s efforts to assert himself.
- Senior Ukrainian officials continue to forecast intensified operations in the spring of 2023 and the unlikely possibility of a Russian offensive from Belarus.
- The reaction to Russians who fled abroad risks further splitting the Kremlin and the ultra-nationalist pro-military community.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly ordered the Russian occupation authorities to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under medically indicated resettlement schemes.
- Russian forces conducted limited counter-attacks along the Svatovo-Kremennaya line, while Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counter-offensive operations in the Kremennaya area.
- Russian troops continued offensive operations in the area of Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka.
- Ukrainian intelligence has said that Russian forces are aiming to bring the number of personnel to two million by an unspecified date.
- Attacks by Ukrainian partisans continue to divert Russian resources away from the front line and into rear areas in the occupied territories.
Recall that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced the so-called capture of Soledar. They claim that this “will help the occupying forces to block the Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut.” However the Ukrainian side refutes this information.
However, earlier Prigozhin, together with the Wagner mercenaries, stated that it was they who entered the city. Already on January 13, the leader of the militants, Prigozhin, said that “they are constantly trying to steal victory from his group,” alluding to reports by the Russian Defense Ministry about the alleged capture of the Ukrainian Soledar.
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