By the end of the month, ecology will have nominated its candidate, but not in the same general indifference as usual.
Ecology does the accounts and believes in it
There is a change of ambition in the air among ecologists, with the clearly stated idea of conquering power. “For the first time, the question arises of having an ecological presidency in France”, declared in particular the mayor of Grenoble, Eric Piolle, during the first debate between candidates for the ecological primary, at the beginning of September.
All this reminds EELV, the ecologists, that the time has come to pump up the muscles, to have high ambitions.
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“Their very strong ambitions began to appear at the time of the 2019 Europeans with the score of 13.5% for EELV, not to mention 3% of diverse and varied ecologies, which is very significant. The whole was followed by the municipal ones and some big cities gained, which left the idea that part of the electorate was ready to give, at the local level, the keys of the town hall to ecologists. All this reminds EELV, the ecologists, that the time has come to pump up the muscles, to have high ambitions ”, explains Daniel Boy, emeritus research director at Cevipof of Sciences Po.
Yannick Jadot: “The left must not be trapped”
Until now, the candidacy of the ecologists was “almost a candidacy of testimony, which made it possible to disseminate themes”, the first being René Dumont in 1974. Noël Mamère remains the one who will have made the best score for a presidential election, reaching 5, 25%. It was in 2002. After, “the electoral system of the presidential one left them little hope”, sums up the political scientist, estimating that “it felt good in their choice of perhaps emblematic personalities, but which one could squarely doubt of their ability to be in the second round. I am thinking in particular of Eva Joly… ”(From left to right) The candidates Delphine Batho, Sandrine Rousseau, Jean-Marc Governatori, Yannick Jadot and Eric Piolle. AFP Combo
Disagreements appeased
” Things have changed. Ecology, for three or four years, contrary to what one hears, is rather united ”.
They therefore feel strong on the inside and strong on the outside. There are no longer any serious differences and they also have the impression that the environment has the wind at its back, if only with regard to what is happening to the planet, between floods, forest fires …
Daniel Boy, emeritus research director at Cevipof of Sciences Po.
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Far from the “bad periods of political ecology”, especially in 2014, with disagreements on participation in a PS government. “So they feel strong on the inside and strong on the outside. There are no longer any serious differences and they also have the impression that the environment has the wind at its back, if only with regard to what is happening to the planet, between floods, forest fires … So for the first time, they have a posture which is “we participate to win”. You can think of it what you want, but they do it with a lot of confidence. “
Julien Bayou (EELV): “Ecology is the only alternative to the Le Pen vote”
First force on the left? Drawing conclusions from regional and municipal is misleading, summarizes the political scientist, because there were leavers. “The outgoing socialists generally resisted the ecologists well, except in Poitiers”. The presidential election is different. For the time being, in the polls, “the ecology is rather in front of the PS or with key-touch”. Ecology will however have the advantage of “bringing something new to a left which has not been able to renew its ideas”, missing out on essential subjects, believes Daniel Boy.
Beware of abstention “The first obstacle for green people is abstention. We know that the presidential election usually resists better, but will this be true in 2022? No one can tell. However, the problem for the ecologists is to convince the young people to go and vote ”.
The Greens benefit from a youth vote, but it is the latter who abstain the most
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Those of Extinction Rebellion for example, whose modes of political action differ, quotes Daniel Boy. “The Greens benefit from a youth vote, but it is the latter who abstain the most.”
The trauma of 2017. Flashback. In 2017, the Jadot episode, withdrawing from the presidential race, to join Benoît Hamon, “left traces”. “It created a trauma because it was the first time since 1974 that there was no green presidential candidate.”
Yannick Jadot, the favorite. Photo Le Pays Roannais.
Favorite jadot, really? A recent Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll named Yannick Jadot as the favorite candidate, at 69%. Daniel Boy remains cautious. “Those who are close to ecology represent 9% in this survey. Make an order of magnitude. In view of the 47 million registered, this represents 4 million people. Do these two groups think the same? I do not know. If the green primary had remained within the framework of the party and its 12,000 members, one could say that Piolle, with its image more to the left, was a hit. At worst, it was tight with Jadot. We do not know what is the profile of those who will vote in the primary. Maybe that will do the job of Jadot, more consensual, more compatible with socialists or centrists? But that can be denied ”.
Eric Piolle, the mayor of Grenoble. Photo Dilan Gurliat
Is radicalism winning? Delphine Batho and the assumed “degrowth”, Sandrine Rousseau and her divisive remarks… Is it beneficial to be radical when you are green? “Yes, when we’re in the party,” Daniel Boy replies. “But when we are in the group of voters, it is much more questionable. Among the members, it leans very much to the left. Among the voters close to the ecology, of course, that leans to the left, but a not insignificant proportion – 10% approximately – is located in the center. Where are the 73,000 registrants? That is the question “.
Florence Chédotal
The 2021 primary is full: 122,670 registered
In 2016, there were 17,000 registered… This is to say how we change dimension, this year, with 122,670 registered. “I was surprised to see BFM and LCI organize the primary of the Greens”, comments Daniel Boy, who notes that until now the organization of this ballot among the Greens remained a “very confidential exercise. You really had to be passionate about ecology or a researcher at Sciences Po to be interested in it ?! “. He also dwells on the financial aspect of the success of this primary, where registration costs 2 euros. “Does that make money falling into the ecologists’ fund ?!” The first round is held from September 16 to 19 and the second from September 25 to 28. The name of the winner will be announced September 29.
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