When superstition comes along at the time of predictions, everyone manages to decipher the best auspices. In this optimism contest, a particular club can whistle festive tunes. Manchester City leader at Christmas, it is the assurance of a coronation in the Premier League five months later. A statistic that already sounds like a sweet melody in the ears of fans of Skyblues. But the fairy tale found his whipping father in an increasingly pervasive Covid-19. As Boxing Day approaches, the outcome of which seems increasingly uncertain, fans of the Etihad Stadium are entitled to fear the worst. A mise en abyme of a not so categorical statistic.
Two antecedents to the opposite scenario
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Never two without three. Seen and reviewed, the adage is well worth recycling for the holidays. After 2011 and 2017, the Citizens will spend New Years Eve firmly installed on the throne of the kingdom. And for good reason, no other club has succeeded in supplanting the Mancunian institution since the latter was leading the debates on the evening of December 25. However, the two antecedents follow very distinct contours.
Manchester City won the Premier League in 2012
Credit: Reuters
On the one hand, the scenario of 2012 deserved its statuette in view of the mano a mano engaged between the two rivals of Manchester. At the cost of a hair-raising final, Roberto Mancini’s men offered themselves the scalp of the hated rival in the last seconds of the championship. Elbow to elbow under the tree with the Red Devils, the Skyblues have long since traded their first place for that of the hunter. Before winning on the wire on goal difference (tied at 89 points).
Then came the record breaking season. There was never any suspense in this 2017-2018 opus. The war machine shaped by Pep Guardiola, a true Stakhanovist of tactical thinking, crushed everything in its path, to the point of raising the points record in one season to 100 units. A dream season, but hardly comparable with that of 2011-2012, nor with the current one. Certainly, in fact, the men of Pep Guardiola are on track to repeat such a performance. But the margin on their pursuers seems very meager (three points ahead of Liverpool, six over Chelsea) in the face of a schedule that promises to be insane.
The Skyblues, kings of the finish
The statistics don’t stop there. The last three times that a leading team at Christmas have come together at the end of the season, Manchester City have been in the game. The victim is the same every time: Liverpool. First punished by Steven Gerrard’s slip in 2014, the Reds then scrapped until the end against the Citizens before losing a small point in 2019 (97 pts against 98 pts). Latest example, no need to go back further than last season.
Steven Gerrard on the Anfield lawn in April 2014
Credit: Eurosport
Barely since the start of the season, Kevin De Bruyne’s teammates have made a big jump in the standings in the space of a few days during Boxing Day. Yet on the momentum of a 2019/2020 campaign overflown, the Mersey club, overwhelmed by injuries, saw all its title chances fly away in the space of a month. The laudatory comments changed sides, and a City off the podium before the holidays was able to calmly pick up its crown.
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