© Velko Angelov
Political formations with chances to participate in electing a regular government remained silent on the first day after the elections. Under the pretext that they are waiting for final results and an exact distribution of mandates, they used to gain time for internal talks and assessment of first public moves after the early vote.
According to “Dnevnik” information, a meeting was held on Monday by the co-presidents of “We continue the change – Democratic Bulgaria”, which is a coalition of six parties and was the big loser of the election despite coming second, but its decisions were not reported to the media. The formation is gathering their positions and is expected to publicly comment on the loss and how they will act on Tuesday or Wednesday, possibly waiting to hear from GERB first.
The coalition, which is first in the vote, also remained silent. Before “Dnevnik” the leader of GERB Boyko Borisov said in the morning that he would speak after the final data, and in the evening he refused to discuss topics that concern the state with our media. Everyone from GERB also remained silent and did not even answer their phones.
On the evening of April 3, the Central Election Commission (CEC) published the data with 100% counted protocols. The distribution of the mandates is to be done, and until Sunday is the deadline for announcing the names of the deputies in the next parliament.
According to “Dnevnik” information, the management of BSP will meet on Tuesday (April 4) to discuss the election results (5th place and less votes than the first vote).
Only the chairman of “Revival” Kostadin Kostadinov – the party that achieved the most serious result with its third place – spared no public appearances, announcing immediately that it would only support her government. On election night, DPS leader Mustafa Karadayi avoided answering specific questions and generally called for dialogue. On Monday, in his usual way of communicating – with a video, the chairman of the last-minute “There is such a people” Slavi Trifonov announced that his deputies “will impose control” and did not say anything about their position as a government.
The vote data shows that in order for the upcoming 49th National Assembly to elect a regular government, it must either be supported by the two first-placed formations, or a combination of at least three parties should be sought.
The fifth parliamentary vote in two years again showed a low turnout (40.63%), although supporters of the paper ballot argued that its return would bring back more voters.
Less time expected for preliminary talks before the mandate
After the election of the parliament, according to the constitution, the president has a period of one month to call the people’s representatives to a first meeting. But after voting, Rumen Radev said that he would not delay the start of the parliament.
According to unofficial information from a source close to the presidential institution, the head of state will convene the 49th National Assembly immediately after the Easter holidays. The likely date is April 19 (Wednesday).
After consultations with the parliamentary groups, the president assigns a candidate for prime minister, nominated by the largest parliamentary group, to form a government. There is no deadline for the delivery of the first mandate, but after the prime minister-candidate receives it, he has seven days to return to the president the folder with a proposal for the structure and composition of the cabinet or leave it blank. If the prime minister nominee proposes a government, it must be voted on by parliament.
After the elections: With 100% processed protocols, GERB wins the elections, “There is such a people” enters the parliament
After the last early elections, Radev gave more time for discussion with the motive of finding a formula for a cabinet, but now the expectations are that the process will go faster, unless the parties ask for time for the consultations.
Arithmetic and politics are different things
In the last days before the vote, the chairman of GERB Boyko Borisov requested a coalition with “We continue the change – Democratic Bulgaria” and was then refused. Given the election results, it is possible that Borisov will repeat the tactic and invite them for a coalition or support. Until now, the unofficial comments in GERB were that the party would again bet on a government with experts (without prominent political figures) in order to more easily gather support in the parliament.
In order for a government to be elected, it must receive the support of half the MPs plus one. That is, 121 votes, if all 240 people’s representatives are registered and vote. A calculation by “Dnevnik” of the mandates (which formation with how many deputies will be represented in the parliament) shows that three arithmetical (but not necessarily political) possibilities are emerging:
- GERB (69) + “We continue the change – Democratic Bulgaria” (64) = 133 deputies
- GERB (69) + DPS (36) + BSP (23) = 128 deputies
- GERB (69) + DPS (36) + BSP (23) + “There is such a people” (11) = 139 deputies. Without the left, support for a government with a mandate from Borisov’s party would not be enough (they have a total of 116 votes).
© Diary
Sources close to “We continue the change” claim that before the elections, the formation did not discuss the matter of supporting a government with a GERB mandate, because the party expected that their coalition would be the first in terms of results. In addition, the question of supporting a government from Borisov’s party is “extremely difficult” and is expected to be widely discussed internally first.
According to a “Dnevnik” source, “what we are doing” will still be discussed in the coalition. If it decides to be the opposition to Borissov’s party, the coalition can easily be blamed for new early elections and thereby suffer further electoral damage.
If it decides on some kind of cooperation with GERB, the conditions under which the mandate holder receives support must be specified, without having serious consequences for the voters of the coalition, who recognize it because of its opposition to GERB. The big question mark for such negotiations and the subject of judicial reform and corruption.
In both versions, “Continuing the change” and “Democratic Bulgaria” will calculate the risks and possible damages, including due to the upcoming local elections.
Support from the DPS for a GERB cabinet can be considered certain, because the party of Mustafa Karadayi makes requests to participate in the government of the country, and also voted “for” the “Gabrovski” cabinet in the last (48th) parliament. But in this case, GERB will have to assess whether there are risks and damages to accept a “hug” with DPS, especially in the context of local elections in the fall.
Record number of voters voted “I do not support anyone”
Unofficial information from BSP sources is contradictory. A representative of the left told “Dnevnik” that it is possible for the party to support an expert government with a GERB mandate. President Kornelia Ninova left the possibility for such support after the last congress of the BSP voted to participate in the cabinet to be decided in an internal party referendum. According to another source on the left, she “will not fall into this trap”, since the BSP has always opposed GERB’s management until now. The two parties also claim serious geopolitical differences.
Representatives of “There is such a people” have repeatedly said that their goal is to have a functioning parliament, without any additional position on whether and whose mandate they would support.
The impact of the elections in “We continue the change – Democratic Bulgaria”
After the elections on April 2, “We continue the change – Democratic Bulgaria” lost nearly 73 thousand votes compared to what the two formations received in the vote at the beginning of October 2022 separately. A person close to Petkov and Vassilev’s party pointed to an outflow of supporters of President Rumen Radev, whom “We continue the change” supported for the second term, but in the last parliament the head of state said that he made a mistake by giving Petkov and Vassilev a chance. Another explanation is the trading of votes, and thirdly, that GERB’s attacks may have influenced voters of “We continue the change”, which, as a new formation, does not have a solid electorate.
According to “Dnevnik” sources, the issue of leadership resignations is not on the agenda in “Continuing the change”, because the formation is new (it was officially established a year ago), and Petkov and Vassilev are considered an attractive force for a large part of its participants.
The topic also became a focus after a call on Monday morning by Nikolay Sabev, former transport minister in the “Petkov” cabinet, that Vassilev, Lorer and the group around them should resign.
Sources from “Democratic Bulgaria” indicated to “Dnevnik” that they are satisfied with their performance in the elections, because calculations in the association indicate that it is increasing its number of deputies. Due to preferences, candidates of “Democratic Bulgaria” displace nominations of “We continue the change” in the lists in Plovdiv, Varna, Burgas, Ruse and Pleven.
All the most important from the first day after the elections:
