Pashinyan is betting on a three-way combination in the game with Moscow – 2024-04-17 11:49:50

/ world today news/ Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan continues to turn his country towards the West. He does this not directly and openly, but as if secretly, step by step. The last episode was a statement from the parliamentary rostrum.

“We are diversifying our security relations because our security partners cannot, including for objective reasons, sell us weapons and ammunition. We talk about it openly and directly,” announced the Prime Minister of Armenia. Pashinyan openly made it clear: Yerevan should look for new partners and “asks the old ones not to be offended”.

Armenia, which lost the one-day war that ultimately lost Nagorno-Karabakh, plans to increase its military budget by 7 percent in 2024, which Pashinyan also announced. France was chosen as a new arms partner, which transferred some twenty armored vehicles to Yerevan, which even Ukraine, which took everything, refused because of their insecurity.

And that doesn’t take into account the fact that the gun business isn’t just set the gun and forget it. This includes maintenance, integration into the armed forces, modernization, adaptation of military planning to existing equipment, and so on. That is, a long-term partnership, which France is clearly not capable of now.

At the same time, Armenia continues to distance itself from its covering defense alliance – the CSTO.

The previous episode of Armenia’s gradual drift away from the alliance with Russia was Pashinyan’s refusal to attend the next summit of the Eurasian Military Organization, which will take place on November 23 in Minsk. The host, Alexander Lukashenko, called on the Armenian Prime Minister not to rush and not to make hasty decisions that could be “aimed at disintegration.”

At the same time, Pashinyan commented on his decision rather ambiguously – he will not go to Minsk, but this does not mean that he is preparing the ground for leaving the CSTO. But in reality, the behavior of the current Armenian leadership seems to be exactly that. Pashinyan’s refusal is a good reason to adjust the clocks, Kremlin official Dmitry Peskov noted.

However, Moscow would not be against the Armenian experiments in theory. The Russian leadership is not opposed. “We support Armenia, as a member of the CSTO, as our close ally and strategic partner, which determines how to build relations with external partners. We have absolutely no prejudices regarding the circle of her external partners, friends – whatever you want to call it,” Sergey Lavrov said earlier.

But Moscow is not against only on one condition – if Armenia does not go into the arms of partners whose goal is to be friends with it against Russia.

That is why, for example, Russian experts and politicians are absolutely not against any development of Armenian-Iranian relations (in fact, Tehran only welcomes the strengthening of Armenian-Russian ties).

But Armenia chose as its alternative partners those who certainly want to use it against Russia and Iran – the USA and France. What the Americans and the French are no longer shy about talking about. According to Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien, Russian Karabakh peacekeepers will have to leave the region after Armenia and Azerbaijan have “alternatives”. O’Brien, of course, means “working with us, with the West.” That is, to put it simply, the goal of the USA is to push Russia out of the Caucasus (and at the same time Turkey, if they manage to win Azerbaijan) with the help of Armenia.

For now, we are simply talking about the withdrawal of Armenia from the pro-Russian structures – in particular from the CSTO. This is what Pashinyan is doing. In particular, he and his representatives simply ignore the meetings of the Organization – under the guise that it does not protect Armenia.

“Our society does not understand why we go every time, repeat the same thing, say and return without getting any answer,” the Armenian Prime Minister addressed the “voice of the people”.

Pashinyan argued: the CSTO refuses to define its area of ​​responsibility in Armenia, and this may mean that “Armenia, in such conditions, simply by silently participating, can join this logic, which in every way calls into question the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country.”

The prime minister forgets that the CSTO defends the entire territory of Armenia recognized by the members of the organization – what Pashinyan himself is ready to defend.

His hope is that Russia itself will “kick” Armenia out of the organization.

The question arises why Yerevan needs these maneuvers and justifications? Why doesn’t Pashinyan just leave the ODKS – it’s not a serf organization, they don’t hold anyone down, do they? Obviously he can’t because he wants to get out without complications. “Nikol Pashinyan is smoothly revising Russian-Armenian relations and carrying out a geopolitical drift. At the same time, he is not leaving the CSTO directly, so that, in the opinion of his team, he will not receive firm retaliatory steps from Moscow,” commented Hayk Halatyan, head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives.

The current Armenian leadership fears Moscow’s response in the economic sphere, which will cause a socio-economic crisis in the country and a threat to its personal power. That is why de jure, without leaving the CSTO, de facto Armenia ceased to participate in it, the expert notes.

Pashinyan may be hoping for a three-move combination. The fact that his actions will provoke harsh rhetoric from Moscow. Rhetoric that (with appropriate retouching by the pro-Pashinyan media) can be positioned as anti-Armenian. Aimed not at the prime minister, but at the entire country. Thus, Pashinyan will increase the number of people who have a negative attitude towards Russia and support his course of slow but persistent foreign policy drift.

And there are many such people in Armenia – the corresponding propaganda works well. This is actually built on two very technological foundations.

The first is psychological. In the West, they understand that the Armenian population is not ready to understand and accept the fact that they themselves betrayed Nagorno-Karabakh – by electing the anti-Karabakh and anti-Russian Pashinyan in 2018, without interfering in his activities until 2021, and his re-election after all the defeats in 2022

They understand that the population will look for the ultimate culprit – and they put in this role Russia, which in 2021 was not ready to fight for Armenia without Armenia (both on the issue of Karabakh and during the invasion of Azerbaijan into Armenian territory , when Pashinyan himself did nothing to repel the aggression).

“Thanks to the propaganda of pro-government and pro-Western resources, there is great disillusionment and dissatisfaction with Russia in society,” says Hayk Khalyatyan. It is widely believed that Russia allegedly betrayed Armenia by allowing Azerbaijan to seize Nagorno-Karabakh and part of Armenian territory itself. And – that Moscow has not taken the actions that are foreseen by the alliance obligations of Russia and Armenia.

The second reason is mathematical. Russian experts believe that the argument that there is no alternative to Moscow as an ally and defender of Armenia is obvious – no one can protect it from Turkey anymore and keep the national economy afloat through various subsidies.

But anti-Russian propagandists try to dispel this argument that there is no alternative, saying that Moscow has allegedly abandoned its role as an ally. This statement sounds something like this: Russia has not yet been able to clearly explain its position on reneging on alliance obligations.

“This means that the idea continues to spread in society that Russia has shown its unreliability as an ally and that other options should be sought,” Hayk Halatyan points out. Even if these options in terms of potential are several times lower than the Russian ones.

Can the opposition bet?

Moscow sees all these processes – and seems to be reacting to them actually with anticipation, Yerevan experts say. “Russia is unlikely to agree to exclude Armenia from the CSTO. This will be a blow to the image of Moscow and those associations it has created,” Halatyan believes. According to him, the Russian side “will bide its time in the hope that some events will occur that will affect bilateral relations, or in anticipation of a change of power in Yerevan to a more constructive one.”

Especially considering that Pashinyan’s current political course is very harshly criticized by the Armenian opposition, Halatyan said. Yes, this opposition is also committed to cooperation with the US and the EU, but it believes that this should not come at the expense of deteriorating relations with Moscow and Tehran.

The only question is when and if this opposition will come to power. Judging by her reluctance to oust Pashinyan by force, this option is possible in a few years at the next election. The next parliamentary campaign, after which the governing cabinet of ministers will be formed, is planned for 2026. And by that time, Pashinyan’s geopolitical drift will already be complete, and Armenia as a country will be marked with a heavy cross, and then there will be no one to turn to is “offended”, experts fear.

Translation: V. Sergeev

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