Pakistan’s Surprising Election Upset: Chaos and Uncertainty in the Transition of Power
Pakistan’s parliamentary elections ended in a shocking upset, leaving the transition to the next government in a state of chaos and uncertainty. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), backed by the powerful military establishment, was widely expected to win the vote and restore controversial former prime minister Nawaz Sharif to power. However, voters delivered a stunning victory to politicians allied with Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.
Despite this victory, it is far from certain that Khan will become the next prime minister or that his party will lead the government. The PTI was effectively barred from running candidates due to a Supreme Court ruling that prohibited them from using their electoral symbol on ballots. As a result, many PTI politicians ran as independents, winning a total of 92 seats in parliament – more than any other major party. While this would typically give a party the upper hand in forming a government and selecting a prime minister, the fact that these independent candidates are not officially affiliated with a party has led to negotiations between PML-N and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) to form a coalition government.
In terms of practical implications for daily life, it is unlikely that this political shift will result in significant changes. None of the major parties have clear plans to address Pakistan’s economic and security challenges. Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, explains that there is not much difference in the parties’ approaches to these issues. Past experiences have shown that previous governments, regardless of their party affiliation, have failed to fundamentally alter the country’s trajectory or improve its economy.
The outcome of the election can be best understood as a rebuke of the political establishment and the military power that supports it. It reflects a lack of confidence in the current system rather than an endorsement of a specific political agenda. The surprise victory of PTI-affiliated politicians is particularly remarkable given the efforts made to prevent their success, including the imprisonment of some politicians and the prohibition of their electoral symbol – the cricket bat, a reference to Khan’s past as a cricket star.
As for who will lead Pakistan now, it is highly likely that a coalition government will be formed between PML-N and PPP, with Shehbaz Sharif, brother of Nawaz Sharif, becoming the prime minister. This outcome was unexpected by many, including political science professor Niloufer Siddiqui, who noted the high voter turnout in what was anticipated to be a low-turnout election.
There is also a possibility that Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the 35-year-old leader of PPP, could be elected prime minister if independent politicians and smaller parties support his candidacy. Bhutto Zardari, the son of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and former President Asif Ali Zardari, has focused his campaign on appealing to younger voters and proposing economic change centered on climate change.
The election results raise questions about the state of Pakistan’s democracy. The coming weeks are expected to be tense as the Parliament attempts to form a government and PTI supporters express their frustration with the political and military establishment. The vote can be seen as both pro-PTI and anti-incumbent, reflecting a rejection of politics as usual.
Pakistan’s political landscape has long been influenced by the military, with a history of military coups undermining democratic processes. This dynamic has limited the power of democratically elected leaders and allowed the military to maintain certain prerogatives within the political system. Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif have both experienced the consequences of falling out with the military establishment, although Sharif appeared to repair his relationship ahead of the election.
While this hybrid nature of Pakistani politics has been accepted by both the Pakistani people and the international community, Khan’s supporters view him as an outsider fighting against corruption. They see him as someone who understands their problems and is not part of the political establishment. The endorsement of PTI-affiliated politicians represents a rejection of politics as usual and a desire for change.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s recent election upset has created a state of chaos and uncertainty in the transition of power. The unexpected victory of PTI-affiliated politicians has challenged the expected outcome and raised questions about the future leadership of the country. The formation of a coalition government between PML-N and PPP seems likely, but the ultimate impact on daily life and the country’s economic and security challenges remains uncertain. This election serves as a rebuke of the political establishment and highlights the desire for change among the Pakistani people.
