Vespignani, ‘the hospitals will return to difficulties if the infections do not stop’
“Because it’s true that vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalizations and deaths by a factor of ten. But if the epidemic gets too high, the problems reappear, from school to hospitals to the supply chain. We see it these days in the UK. The situation has improved enormously with vaccines. But making predictions just got harder. In phase two, for sure. With vaccines, nothing is the same as before. But the picture was filled with variables and nuances. The queue will be long and must be managed with intelligence ”. This was stated by Alessandro Vespignani, a Roman physicist, expert in epidemic propagation models at Northeastern University in Boston, in an interviewer for the newspaper ‘La Repubblica’. “Vaccines reduce hospitalizations and deaths by 5-10 times. But only among the vaccinated. And the proportionality with respect to the infections remains. With a small factor, but stay. Thanks to vaccines today we can handle more cases, but we can’t handle everything. An excessive number of infections can bring back hospitals in difficulty. – explains Vespignani – It is the scenario that must be avoided, we know it since the beginning of the pandemic. The British have set a hundred thousand cases a day as their threshold, but they are starting to have problems right now, and they are far from it. These numbers seem enormous, but if the cases continue to double every 7-10 days, we have to be careful ”. It is necessary “to vaccinate quickly, to keep the masks, which all in all are the most bearable measure, to be careful with big events, to take advantage of the Green Pass tool. And use our responsibility. In this uncertain and complex phase, with the rules that are gradually relaxed but the virus circulates a lot, our choices take on enormous importance. – continues Vespignani – In Great Britain the increase in infections occurred in a period of open schools. The decision to lift the restrictions on July 19 was linked to the end of the lessons. The question of whether the Delta variant is more contagious to children has received varied and multifaceted answers. But certainly a strain that is capable of infecting more in general will tend to do so even among school-age youngsters. The answer is to vaccinate, wear masks, keep your distance. And try not to arrive in September with the epidemic accelerating ”.
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