While access to independent information is becoming increasingly difficult, many Russians also have a growing disbelief about their country’s attack on Ukraine, which now lasts 17 days.
According to the independent Russian human rights organization OVD-Info, since the start of the invasion, almost 14,000 people arrested in anti-war campaigns in Russia, often brutally. Also, according to the Russian news agency RIA hefty fines handed out for people who call for protest.
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Any protest prohibited
Because wartime is rife with disinformation, it is difficult to estimate the magnitude of the protest against the war throughout Russia. And whether this protest is widely supported.
“That is difficult to gauge, as any form of public protest is prohibited and could result in a prison sentence,” said Russia correspondent Eva Hartog. “All independent media are also either closed or no longer write about the war. Social media such as Facebook, TikTok, Twitter and now Instagram are blocked by the authorities.”
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It is clear, according to Hartog, that feelings are also rising in Russia. “You hear that at the kitchen table, but also on social media. And especially from thousands of Russians who have now fled their own country.”
‘Many Russians in shock’
The Dutch media entrepreneur and publisher Derk Sauer has a say in this. He has lived in the Russian capital Moscow since 1989, but this week forced back to the Netherlands came. This time for a longer period of time, it seems, now that Russian authorities can impose prison sentences of up to 15 years on independent journalists.
According to Sauer, there is great disbelief among the population in larger cities in particular. “Many Russians are shocked and do not know what is happening to them. At first no one had counted on this war, it already came as a huge shock. And now the sanctions will be added.”
The media entrepreneur points to the mostly young Russians who dare to speak out. “Of course there is protest. But that is just very dangerous. Only the bravest take to the streets because they are vehemently against the war. First because it is murderous what is happening, and secondly because they see their own future collapsing. “
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Sanctions and exodus companies
The economic sanctions of Western countries against Russia and growing social pressure have led to an exodus of international companies. From McDonald’s, Heineken and Starbucks to Puma, Zara and Volkswagen: all they ceased their activities in Russia.
The consequences for Russian society are already noticeable, Sauer says. “Life in the big cities in particular is collapsing. Payments are terribly difficult and import and export is no longer possible. The country is completely isolated, and quite rightly so.”
The question now is where this isolation of Russia will lead. According to historian Marc Jansen, that depends on the Russians themselves. “The average Russian can no longer buy Western products. The question is how they will interpret that. It could lead to more protest against Putin, or more support, because they follow him in the claim that the West is turning against Russia. Both are still possible.”
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Criticism from your own circle?
Meanwhile, more and more Russians are realizing that Ukraine has no intention of surrendering. It led to striking criticism from his own circle this week: filmmaker Karen Shakhnazarov – known for his pro-Putin statements – spoke on Russian state television openly expressing doubts about the invasion.
“You can see that the events in Ukraine are criticized from unexpected quarters, but on Russian state television nothing is what it seems, everything is strictly directed,” says correspondent Hartog.
According to her, broadcasting Shaknazarov’s statements can also be a conscious choice. “By showing on TV that a large part of the population has such ideas, and then having it disproved by, for example, the presenter, it gives people an outlet.”
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Tried and tested tactics
That is a tried and tested tactic in discussion programs on Russian state television: inviting a guest who articulates the position of ‘the West’. And then bombard that person with an avalanche of counter-arguments. Hartog: “Moreover, Shakhnazarov does not completely deviate from the Kremlin line. He puts the blame for the war on the US because it supposedly wants to make Russia weak. And that fits completely into the story of Russian propaganda.”
Sauer is also not yet convinced of the criticism from his own circle. “A few have said on Russian state television that too many Russian soldiers are dying in Ukraine. But I have never heard anyone say that Putin is a war criminal. Everyone is scared to criticize.”
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