NYMEX crude is expected to drop to $ 80.02
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International oil prices rose slightly on Thursday (22 September), benefiting from the unstable geopolitical situation and increased demand from China. However, in light of the generally aggressive stance of global central banks, oil prices continue to be bearish, with NYMEX crude expected to drop to $ 80.02.
At 6:21 pm Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.55% to USD 83.40 / barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.64% to USD 89.37 / barrel.
On Thursday, Russia began pushing for its largest military recruitment campaign since World War II, fueling fears that an escalation of the war in Ukraine could further damage supply and lead to wilder swings in the markets.
According to relevant data provided by intermediaries, as of last week, the average operating rate of state-owned refineries in China had risen to 73.74%, up 2.56% since the end of August. Shandong’s independent refineries, which account for a fifth of China’s total refining capacity, also rebounded.
The easing of the downward pressure on the oil market is also due to the increase in US inventories. U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by 1.142 million barrels to 430.8 million barrels in the week ending September 16, but the increase was less than the 2.161 million barrels predicted by analysts in an earlier poll.
But the aggressive hawkish stance of global central banks is bearish for oil markets. Markets await the imminent announcement of the Bank of England’s new policy, with interest rates expected to rise by at least 0.5 percentage points to curb inflation, which has been at its highest for nearly 40 years. Oil prices closed lower after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time overnight and signaled that financial costs will continue to rise this year.
On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points, bringing the policy rate from -0.25% to 0.50%, ending the eight-year negative interest rate policy and the level of interest rates. interest rates reached a new high since December 2008. The SNB did not rule out the need to raise policy rates further.
On the daily line, NYMEX crude is in a third wave to the downside starting at $ 90.19 and the lower support is looking at the 61.8% target at $ 80.02. Wave iii is a sub-wave of wave (iii) that started to drop at $ 97.66. Wave (iii) is a sub-wave of descending wave ((c)) that started at $ 123.68. Wave ((c)) is part of corrective wave 4 which started at $ 130.50.
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