The death rate during the first corona wave was exceptionally high, but lower than during some other important events of the last century. This is stated in an article by scientists at Sciensano published on Archives of Public Health.
In our country, a total of 15,398 people died in April 2020 (from all kinds of causes), compared to 8,854 in an average month of April in the past five years. The mortality rate was 134 per 100,000 inhabitants in April 2020. To understand that figure, the researchers compared the number of corona deaths with the number of deaths from other causes during the first wave of the pandemic. In addition, a comparison was also made with historical mortality figures from the last century, such as those during the outbreak of the Spanish flu.
If we look at the absolute figures, the number of daily deaths during the first peak was a lot higher than in the same period in previous years. On average, in the period 2015-2019, 321 people died daily during the winter months and 270 during the summer months. There are occasional outliers, such as during a flu epidemic in March 2018, when an average of 465 people died every day. In March and April this year, that number was much higher, with more than 500 deaths per day. Seven days there were even more than 600 deaths. In our country, a total of 15,398 people died in April 2020 (from all kinds of causes), compared to 8,854 in an average month of April in the past five years.
Compare with flu epidemics in the 1950s
The figures for this year are therefore a lot higher than in previous years, but the researchers also compared them with the figures during other health crises in history. The number of deaths in April 2020 is comparable to the number of deaths in the flu epidemics of January 1951 and February 1960, when about 15,500 people died every month. Only at the beginning and end of the Second World War did more people die. In May 1940 there were 23,106 and in January 1945 15,950. There must have been more during the Spanish flu, but no monthly figures are available for that period.
The same evolution is taking place in mortality rates. A death rate of 134 in 100,000 inhabitants is comparable to that of the 1989 flu epidemic and is not far below the figure during the Hong Kong flu in 1968-1970 (149 in 100,000). At the start and end of World War II, the death rate was much higher (279 and 191 per 100,000, respectively), just like during the Spanish flu. The monthly death rate in 1918 was 174 per 100,000 inhabitants.
These 2020 figures include deaths from all causes and not just deaths of COVID-19 patients. The fact that the figures are so high compared to ‘normal’ years is of course due to the health crisis. But the researchers point out that the coronavirus has also indirectly killed victims. For example, treatments were postponed and the lockdown and lack of physical activity have undoubtedly also had a significant impact. The impact on our psychological well-being may also have led to more deaths, it says.
On the other hand, the lockdown reduced the risk of death from a traffic, sports, entertainment or work accident. People were also less exposed to pollutants, which is also a major cause of excess mortality.
Remarkable decline after peak
Not all deaths during the corona spike can be linked to COVID-19, as a number of deaths would occur anyway, even without the corona crisis. But after the peak in deaths, there has been no noticeable decline, meaning that the majority of people who died would not die in the short term if the corona crisis had not occurred.
Officially, since the first corona infection in our country was established on February 3 during the first wave, until June 21, 9,591 deaths have been caused by corona.
The death rate in our country was among the highest in the world. The researchers point out once again that this also has to do with the way in which our country counted the number of deaths. In addition to the deaths of patients tested for the virus, radiologically confirmed cases are also included in the official figures, which other European countries did not. In addition, Belgium not only counted the registered deaths in hospital, but also those in residential care centers and at home. In total, 69 percent of registered corona deaths were confirmed with a test, 4 percent with a chest CT scan, and 27 percent were defined as a possible case. The death rate from COVID-19 was 834.5 deaths per million residents. If only test-confirmed deaths were included in the figures, the death rate would be 358 per million.
In our country, a total of 15,398 people died in April 2020 (from all kinds of causes), compared to 8,854 in an average month of April in the past five years. The mortality rate was 134 per 100,000 inhabitants in April 2020. To understand that figure, the researchers compared the number of corona deaths with the number of deaths from other causes during the first wave of the pandemic. In addition, a comparison was also made with historical mortality figures from the last century, such as those during the outbreak of the Spanish flu. If we look at the absolute figures, the number of daily deaths during the first peak was a lot higher than in the same period in previous years. On average, in the period 2015-2019, 321 people died daily during the winter months and 270 during the summer months. There are occasional outliers, such as during a flu epidemic in March 2018, when an average of 465 people died every day. In March and April this year, that number was much higher, with more than 500 deaths per day. Seven days there were even more than 600 deaths. In our country, a total of 15,398 people died in April 2020 (from all kinds of causes), compared to 8,854 in an average month of April in the past five years. The figures for this year are therefore a lot higher than in previous years, but the researchers also compared them with the figures during other health crises in history. The number of deaths in April 2020 is comparable to the number of deaths in the flu epidemics of January 1951 and February 1960, when about 15,500 people died every month. Only at the beginning and end of the Second World War did more people die. In May 1940 there were 23,106 and in January 1945 15,950. There must have been more during the Spanish flu, but no monthly figures are available for that period. The same evolution is taking place in mortality rates. A death rate of 134 in 100,000 inhabitants is comparable to that of the 1989 flu epidemic and is not far below the figure during the Hong Kong flu in 1968-1970 (149 in 100,000). At the start and end of World War II, the death rate was much higher (279 and 191 per 100,000, respectively), just like during the Spanish flu. The monthly death rate in 1918 was 174 per 100,000 inhabitants. These 2020 figures include deaths from all causes and not just deaths of COVID-19 patients. The fact that the figures are so high compared to ‘normal’ years is of course due to the health crisis. But the researchers point out that the coronavirus has also indirectly killed victims. For example, treatments were postponed and the lockdown and lack of physical activity have undoubtedly also had a significant impact. The impact on our psychological well-being may also have led to more deaths, it says. On the other hand, the lockdown reduced the risk of death from a traffic, sports, entertainment or work accident. People were also less exposed to pollutants, which is also a major cause of excess mortality. Not all deaths during the corona spike can be linked to COVID-19, as a number of deaths would occur anyway, even without the corona crisis. But after the peak in deaths, there has been no noticeable decline, meaning that the majority of people who died would not die shortly had the corona crisis not occurred. Officially, since the first corona infection in our country was established on February 3 during the first wave, until June 21, 9,591 deaths have been caused by corona. The death rate in our country was among the highest in the world. The researchers point out once again that this also has to do with the way in which our country counted the number of deaths. In addition to the deaths of patients tested for the virus, radiologically confirmed cases are also included in the official figures, which other European countries did not. In addition, Belgium not only counted the registered deaths in hospital, but also those in residential care centers and at home. In total, 69 percent of registered corona deaths were confirmed with a test, 4 percent with a chest CT scan, and 27 percent were defined as a possible case. The death rate from COVID-19 was 834.5 deaths per million residents. If only test-confirmed deaths were included in the figures, the death rate would be 358 per million.
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