Nuclear, the devastating consequences on a planetary scale of an offensive. The perspective? “A new ice age”

Regardless of which nation will launch thenuclear offensivethe result would be anyway devastating on a planetary scale: we would enter a long nuclear winter that would lead to a new ice age. This ominous prospect emerges from a study conducted by scientists of the Louisiana State University (LSU) and the Rutgers Universitywho published an article in the magazine American Geophysical Union Advances to make known the results of their work. The researchers, led by LSU’s Cheryl Harrison, ran a series of computer simulations to estimate the consequences of using nuclear weapons supported by current technologies.

Secondo lo Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, nine nations currently control more than 13,000 nuclear weapons and with the plight of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the world began to fear the prospect of a nuclear attack. The researchers evaluated different scenarios to determine what the consequences of a war would be with currently available nuclear technologies. Among the various options, the team simulated a reality in which United States and Russia they will use 4,400 100-kiloton nuclear weapons to bomb cities and industrial areas. In another scenario, experts assessed the possible consequences of an attack by India and Pakistan with 500 nuclear weapons of 100 kilotons.

The study shows that in any given situation, the impacts would be devastating on a planetary scale: in fact, within the first 30 days of the detonation, there would be a drop in global average temperatures of about 13 degrees Fahrenheit. Firestorms, explosions and soot would reach the upper atmosphere, blocking the passage of solar radiation and compromising the well-being of crops and the population. “Regardless of the place of the initial detonation – observes Harrison – when the toxic substances reach the upper atmosphere, the whole planet will suffer the consequences. Ocean temperatures would drop suddenly, remaining altered even after the war “. Following these initial stages, sea ​​ice would expand to block passage in several ports, such as Tientsin (China), Copenhagen and St. Petersburg. The ice sheets could reach coastal regions, hindering navigation and the procurement of food and supplies, especially in areas currently not equipped to deal with problems related to ice expansion. The results, the authors report, clearly show the global interconnectedness of earth systems, especially in the event of perturbations caused by volcanic eruptions, massive fires or wars.

“The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has influenced gas prices and a series of aspects of our daily newspaper – continues Harrison – emphasizing the fragility of the global economy and supply chains with respect to these emergency situations”. “A nuclear war would have truly disastrous consequences – he adds Alan Robock of Rutgers University, another signature of the article – we hope that our work will push world leaders to ratify the ban on the use of nuclear weapons ”. Like a nuclear explosion, the scientists explain, volcanic eruptions can release toxic compounds into the atmosphere that could compromise the health and safety of the population. Since these events are neither foreseeable nor avoidable, it would be advisable to focus on strategies aimed at limiting the negative consequences associated with them. “We can and must avoid nuclear war – concludes Harrison – while we have no power over extreme environmental events. This is why we should focus on how to deal with the inevitable climate shocks that will derive from phenomena that we cannot influence or predict ”.

I study

Valentina Di Paola

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