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Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NCSP) and the Logistics Sector: Rising Prices, Speculative Movement, and Potential Drivers

Shares of the Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NMTP) rose by 33.63%, at the peak their price reached ₽17.45 per security. This is a new historical maximum of the company. Papers update highs for the fourth trading day in a row starting from August 2, since that day the value of NCSP shares has grown by 70.2%.

Until 2023, the price maximum was recorded in June 2020 at the level of ₽12.48 per security, according to trading data of the Moscow Exchange.

As of 14:46 Moscow time, daily growth slowed down to 26.08%, and the price of securities fell to ₽16.46 per share.

Experts at BCS World of Investments noted that “no drivers or news that could explain such a strong rise have been found.” Analysts believe that the company’s papers look attractive in the long term, but at the moment they look overheated.

In recent days, quotes of the entire transport sector have been growing. So, on Monday, Globaltrans receipts added more than 7%, Sovcomflot shares – 2.5%, Globaltruck – 5.8%.

BCS World of Investments believes that the growth of the sector’s shares in the absence of drivers is a speculative movement following the rally in the shares of the Far Eastern Shipping Company (FESCO), which have grown by more than 50% since July 31. “Earlier, similar take-offs took place in TNS subsidiaries. The market is now extremely sensitive to the rise in low-liquid securities. The growth of quotes, especially strong, provokes an influx of new money, which pushes the price even higher, ”the brokerage company explained.

“The exact reasons for this rally in the logistics sector are not entirely clear. Most likely, FESCO shares soared on the news that their subsidiary FESCO, together with Russian Railways, intends to build a railway line to the Vladivostok Sea Commercial Port, which will increase the port’s throughput by 40%, and this event is very important for the entire Russian economy in connection with redirecting exports to Asia,” said Natalia Milchakova, Leading Analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

Regarding NCSP, the expert suggested that “the rally was a delayed reaction to the company’s controversial but generally positive financial results under RAS for the first half of 2023, as NCSP’s revenue grew by 11.3% in annual terms.” In addition, NCSP, unlike FESCO, pays dividends – at the end of 2022, the company paid ₽0.798 per share, which corresponded to a dividend yield of about 7%, Milchakova added.

NCSP Group is a port operator and a leader in the Russian stevedoring market in terms of cargo turnover. The Group includes two largest ports in Russia — Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and Primorsk on the Baltic, as well as the port of Baltiysk in the Kaliningrad region. Ports transship a large range of cargo: general, bulk, liquid and container.

2023-08-07 12:26:00
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