Despite intensive testing, no new corona patients have been found in New Zealand for several days in a row.
It was world news earlier this week. The very last New Zealand corona patient was symptom-free for 48 hours in a row and was therefore declared cured. Great news, revealing that the measures that have also been taken in New Zealand to prevent the spread of the virus are working. But is New Zealand actually corona free?
Circulate
That is the big question. Because although the fact that the last corona patient was declared cured last Monday, shows that the country has succeeded in limiting the spread of the virus, it has not yet been immediately proven that the virus has actually left the country, says Dr. Amanda Kvalsvig, affiliated with the University of Otago and one of the advisors to the New Zealand government. “The number of corona patients and the number of recovered corona patients does not tell us how many people are still transmitting the virus today and does not answer the question that is really important: does the virus still circulate within the population?”
In general, it is not the confirmed corona patients that experts are concerned about. After all, once it is clear that someone has contracted the virus, it can quarantine, preventing further spread through this person. “The biggest concerns we’ve always had about undetected cases, which could lead to new outbreaks,” said Professor Michael Baker of Otago University.
Encouraging
In that sense, the fact that the number of active corona cases dropped to “0” on Monday doesn’t say much about how active the virus is. “If, despite continuing to test, we no longer encounter new coronation cases, it is much more informative,” says Kvalsvig. “And so far, the results have been encouraging.” Even in the past two days, despite several thousand corona tests, no new infections have been reported. And with that it has been 19 days since the last new contamination case came on the radar.
The numbers
The first corona infection is diagnosed in New Zealand at the end of February. In the three months that followed, 1154 people tested positive. Another 350 people are strongly suspected to have had the virus. 1482 patients were declared cured. 22 residents of New Zealand have died from the virus.
Relaxation
Judging by the figures, the New Zealand government saw plenty of room for relaxation. And last Monday virtually all corona measures were lifted. Everyone can now go to work, school and sports again without restrictions. Traveling within the national borders is also allowed again and New Zealanders are allowed to reunite with as many people as they want. However, border controls remain intact and everyone entering New Zealand must be quarantined for 14 days. Furthermore, the advice to wash hands regularly, to cough and sneeze in the elbow and to stay at home as much as possible with colds, and to have yourself tested, remains in force. New Zealanders are also called upon to keep accurate records of where they have been, making it easier to trace contacts in the event of an outbreak.
New cases
Although the measures have been considerably relaxed, the advice does state that the danger is far from over. In fact, according to the New Zealand government, it is almost certain that new cases will be reported soon. Because it seems unlikely that the virus has actually left the country. It may still be dormant in some asymptomatic patients. “People who have become infected but are not showing symptoms can be a source of new infections, especially now that they can become more mobile (under the relaxed measures, ed.),” Said Dr. Arindam Basu, of the University of Canterbury. “And when we enter the winter months, some places (such as shopping centers and cinemas, for example) will be very busy. If you consider all that, the chances of people with an asymptomatic infection coming into contact with and infecting others increase. ”
Travelers
However, Kvalsvig thinks the greatest danger lies elsewhere. “If new outbreaks arise, it will most likely be because the borders have reopened and new infections can enter the country. We will have to maintain strict border controls for a long time to come, but no control measure is 100 percent effective and we cannot assume that those measures at the border will keep us safe. ” Baker endorses that. COVID-19 clearly remains a threat as long as the pandemic continues. The probability (of contamination, ed.) Will increase again in New Zealand when the number of incoming travelers is gradually increased. The risk of infection will also increase during the coming winter months, when coronaviruses can be more easily transmitted. ”
New Zealand has a first victory against the corona virus in the pocket for now. But there is clearly no final victory, as Baker emphasizes once again. “This was only the first battle in what will be a protracted war against the virus.”
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