A second wave of coronavirus this winter could cause up to 120,000 deaths in UK hospitals in the worst case scenario “reasonable” without adequate preparation, according to a study by the Academy of Medical Sciences published on Tuesday (07/14/2020).
“It is not a prediction, it is a possibility,” said Professor Stephen Holgate, who led the preparation of this report by 37 experts, requested by the Boris Johnson government, in a statement.
The report warns that “intensive preparation” is needed from now on to reduce the risk that the public health service, the NHS, will collapse this winter.
Some research suggests that the new coronavirus – which has claimed the lives of nearly 45,000 people in the UK, Europe’s hardest hit country – is spreading further during the cold season.
Although the report highlights that there is a “high degree of uncertainty” about the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic, the “reasonable worst case scenario” predicts an increase in the rate of reproduction of the virus by 1.7 from September. This data, which corresponds to the average number of people infected by an infected person, is currently between 0.7 and 0.9 in the country.
Models established on the basis of this type of scenario speak of a peak of deaths and admissions in hospitals in January and February 2021 “similar or worse” to that of the first wave of spring and would coincide with the peak of activity of the hospital system with seasonal diseases.
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