A new price hike is on the way for petrol and diesel. The ‘blame’ is entirely to be given to the European embargo against the Russian oil. All this means that fuel costs will rise even more, with diesel already exceeding 2 euros per liter in “served” mode. But when exactly will this further increase occur?
Current numbers
The weekly data from the Ministry of the Environment showed that the price per served for diesel and petrol is respectively 2.007 euros per litre and 2.051 euros per litre, while self-service prices are between 1.859 and 1.883 euros for petrol and between 1.904 and 1.926 euros for diesel. “Compared to 31 December 2022, today a liter of petrol costs almost 23 cents more, with an increase of 13.8%, equal to a sting of 11.36 euros for a 50-litre tank, 273 euros on an annual basis considering 2 full tanks of fuel per month per family, while diesel goes up by 12%, over 20 cents per litre, equal to 10 euros and 22 cents per refueling”explained Massimiliano Dona, the president of the national consumer union.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the European Union has already halved imports of Russian diesel, increasing that coming from the United States and other countries. Since last Sunday February 5th imports are in fact prohibited: from that moment there are one million barrels less per day, a quarter of the demand for the whole EU. In this eventuality, according to some estimates, the new price increase on our tanks could be around 10 or even 20 cents a litreespecially with regard to diesel.
Last week the spokesperson for the KremlinDmitri Peskov, had declared that the embargo is unbalanced “further global energy markets”: “We have a negative attitude but are taking steps to protect our interests from the risks it entails”, he later commented. But what will concretely change, therefore, for the European Community after this date circled in red on the calendar? And for Italy?
The petrol situation in Italy
Importing diesel from more distant suppliers, including the United States and Saudi Arabia, is driving up the cost of transporting diesel. “We expect diesel prices to go up in Europe. We expect some kind of peak in February, March”said Mark Williams, director of research at Wood Mackenzie. However, the fact that he will weigh equally on everyone is not so sure. Because within Europe the situation is very diversified. For the Germania it will not be easy to do without Russian diesel which has so far contributed to 30% of its needs; and so do France and the Netherlands (both 27%).
In Italy, however, the situation is completely different. Until June 2022, Russia only supplied us with 5% diesel/diesel. Since July 2022, the quota has been completely zeroed: not even a barrel arrives from Putin’s refineries. After all, with our 13 plants scattered throughout the peninsula we are practically autonomous: compared to an internal consumption of refined products equal to 55 million tons, we refine almost 71.
And, theoretically, we could go even further since the theoretical production capacity has gone up to 88 million tons. To provide a proportion, Germany instead consumes 92 and produces 83). Even the data on the solo diesel remain in line: we consume 26 million tons and produce almost 30. However, it is natural to believe that part of the demand from other European countries may also turn to Italian refineries (which already export over 27 million tons of products), thus raise prices in our country too. For now, the scenarios are all evolving. Only in the coming weeks will it be possible to understand something more and verify whether the new fuel drain will actually arrive.
