Third referendum on independence in three years in New Caledonia. The impact of the Covid crisis and Beijing’s invasive soft power do not plead in favor of the separatists.
French interests, Chinese interference, a fractured society, all in a region where the balance of the new world order is being played out …: the referendum on independence organized, on Sunday, December 12, in the community beyond – The French sea of New Caledonia conceals an issue which goes beyond the framework of this territory of some 275,000 inhabitants.
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French interests, Chinese interference, a fractured society, all in a region where the balance of the new world order is being played out …: the referendum on independence organized, on Sunday, December 12, in the community beyond – The French sea of New Caledonia conceals an issue which goes beyond the framework of this territory of some 275,000 inhabitants. This popular consultation is the third and last provided for by the Noumea agreement concluded on May 5, 1998 between the government of Paris engaged in an unprecedented process of decolonization and the representatives of the population of this set of islands and archipelagos located in the South Pacific Ocean. The results of the first two (56.7% against independence, 43.3% for, on November 4, 2018, 53.3% against and 46.7% for, on October 4, 2020) and the proindependentist trend that they spent hinted at a fierce fight for this third round. Developments in the local situation since the end of the summer invalidate this prediction. From September, New Caledonia was hit by the global Covid epidemic which had spared it until then. Some 280 people have died from the disease. The indigenous Kanak population, which dominates the poorest segments of society, has been severely affected. The leaders of the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), pillar of the independence camp, considered that the referendum campaign had not been able to unfold as it should have to guarantee a fair ballot, in particular because of the time of the mourning required by Kanak culture. As a result, they called on their supporters not to participate in the referendum. Until a few days after it was held, citizens and associations of the independence camp tried to have it postponed by submitting a request to this effect before the Council of State in Paris. But the normalization of the health situation in the archipelagos has not favored their approach. This context will have a series of repercussions. It’s hard to imagine that those who plan to answer yes to the question “Do you want New Caledonia to achieve full sovereignty and become independent?” and who would dare to defy the call for boycott could be in the majority on the evening of December 12, barring a huge surprise. Refusal of the postponement could exacerbate tensions to the point, perhaps, of threatening the smooth conduct of the referendum. And in addition, if the no is won, the lack of legitimacy, which, in a proven or instrumental way, will affect the consultation, will complicate the rest of the process. This last referendum meeting will sign the end of the application of the Nouméa agreement. If the no wins, a transition period of eighteen months will open, from December 13, 2021 to June 30, 2023, during which the institutional framework of New Caledonia within the system will have to be discussed. French. It will then be necessary to see what attitude will adopt the actors of the independence movement, which in recent months have displayed their divisions, in particular between the Caledonian Union and the National Union for Independence, components of the FLNKS, on the formation of the “collegial government “, the regional executive. The stake of the referendum in New Caledonia is not insignificant for Emmanuel Macron. The importance of the French presence in the Pacific Ocean was recalled on the occasion of the snub inflicted on Paris, in September, by Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom in the file of the rupture, without consultation, of the contract for the sale of French submarines in Canberra for the benefit of American vehicles. Having to resolve to register the independence of a former territory in this strategic region where he aspires to play a role among the greats would be a second failure for the French president, all the less welcome during the campaign for the presidential election. . Interest in the future of New Caledonia is not unrelated to the growing rise in tensions between China and Western countries. The latter are watching with concern the deployment of Chinese soft power in Oceania. The riots which agitated, three days of November, the Solomon Islands, independent state, could thus serve as additional warning to counter the independence project of New Caledonia. In Honiara, capital of the Solomon Islands, part of the population revolted against the alleged corruption of Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare against a background of suspicion of Chinese largesse for the benefit of his government. In 2019, the chief executive turned his back on Taiwan to get closer to China. Chinese entryism is certainly a reality. In a voluminous and in-depth report from the Strategic Research Institute of the Ecole Militaire, in France, entitled Chinese Influence Operations: a Machiavellian Moment, researchers Pierre Charon and Jean-Baptiste Jeangène Vilmer, questioning the role of the ‘Sino-Caledonian Friendship Association, warn: “An independent New Caledonia would be de facto under Chinese influence and present at least two major interests for the Party-State. First, it would become the keystone of the Chinese anti-encirclement strategy, while isolating Australia since in addition to Noumea, Beijing will be able to rely on Port Moresby (Editor’s note: capital of Papua New Guinea), Honiara (Solomon Islands), Port -Vila (Vanuatu) and Suva (Fiji Islands). Then it would also provide China with a supply of raw materials, particularly nickel. Beijing therefore has several reasons for encouraging the independence of this territory. ” In such an environment and under such pressure, the ambition of the Caledonian separatists smacks of a desperate cause.
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