While visiting a NATO meeting in Bucharest on Tuesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Cooleba made an emphatic appeal to allies: “Patriot air defense systems and transformers are what we need most.” NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said countries were promising extra contributions and confirmed there was “a discussion” within the alliance about providing Patriots, a system used not only by the United States, but also by the Netherlands , Germany, Greece and Spain.
In Romania on Tuesday, the allies did everything possible to maintain their unity in the face of Russian aggression in Ukraine. “Next month is a test for all of us,” said Slovakian Foreign Minister Ratislav Kacer, “an existential test for Ukraine, a moral one for us.” His Lithuanian colleague Vytautas Landsbergis brought a simple recipe: “Keep calm and give tanks.”
Thin cracks
But under the front of unanimity, the thin cracks are becoming more and more visible – and are no longer limited to Italian doubts, the Turkish way or Hungarian extortion attempts (EU money in exchange for aid to Ukraine). Transatlantic tensions are also increasing, even if everyone realizes that they must not break through the closed front. This is partly the main consequences of the war in Ukraine – in terms of the economy, food supply and energy prices – which turn out to be very different on both sides of the ocean.
The tensions are partly the result of Europe’s previous geopolitical choices: the abolition of strong armed forces and increased dependence on Russian gas even after the Russian annexation of Crimea.
The United States has provided by far the largest military and economic support to Ukraine. Kiev’s European neighbors have given even more in percentage terms, but like much of the rest of the continent they are now reaching the limits of their limited capacity.
The Europeans were unprepared for a major land war that gobbled up munitions on both sides. As Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations noted, “A day in Ukraine is a month or more in Afghanistan.” The United States has much more to offer, even though it now threatens to get into trouble with certain types of weapons and ammunition.
Technology battle against China
That Europe also lags behind in economic support is even harder to explain and is increasingly becoming a political factor in Washington. The United States therefore wants Europe not only to do more for Ukraine, but also to join its technological battle against China.
Washington is seriously considering a conflict over Taiwan and wants not only American but also European companies to stop transferring technology that can also be used by Beijing for military applications. How America and Europe relate to China is a topic not only on the agenda of the NATO meeting in Romania, but also of French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Washington this week.
There will also be increasingly strong European complaints about two other things: the large profits that American companies make from the sale of liquefied gas to Europe and the so-called Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the gigantic climate law that President Joe Biden dragged to Congress and which, according to Europeans, is a great subsidy to American industry.
“Europe pays for the war, not the United States”
The combined effect of the IRA and energy prices, which are much higher in Europe than in the US and elsewhere, is deadly, European experts and politicians say. It could lead to “a wave of deindustrialization in Europe,” says French expert Sébastien Jean. In Brussels, these types of warnings are taken very seriously. French European Commissioner Thierry Breton already privately preaches that “Europe pays for war, not the United States”. And Macron dreams aloud of a ‘Buy European Act’ following the American (and Chinese) example.
“The Inflation Reduction Act offsets WTO rules in US companies for energy spending,” says MEP Bart Groothuis (VVD). “Europe cannot stand by and watch our industry lose competitiveness due to unfair practices.”
After nine months, this shows how the consequences of Russian aggression against Ukraine create not only Western consensus, but also new domestic fissile material. Transatlantic trade disputes are nothing new per se, but this time there’s a serious confrontation at an inopportune time. As with NATO in Bucharest, Biden’s reception of Macron at the White House will focus on lasting unity: helping Ukraine get through the winter together. But it is undeniable that there is more and more work to be done internally among allies as well.
