[Nakayama Gold Cup / Pericoloso cavallo popolare]The best performing 4-year-old horses are graded as “cleared” “Trails that cannot demonstrate their characteristics” | SPREAD

The 72nd running to mark the opening of 2023 Central Horse RacingZhongshan Gold Cup(GIII, turf 2000m) is last year’s Kisaragi Prize winner andmatten loureoHe topped the 3-win class in the previous race and has a track record of finishing 3rd in the Hopeful Stakes at the age of 2LagulfAiming for the 1st heavy prize showing a solid run in the 2000m turf heavy prize frontplowedwinner of the NIKKEI Radio AwardferngrottenAnd so on.

The average dividend over the last 10 years is 58,737 yen, not an easy handicap. Meanwhile,Lagulfit’s this time”dangerous hot horse” objective.

[Nakayama Gold Cup 2023 Forecast / Pedigree Trend]Purported odds of ‘3 digits’ Anauma In January, betting ticket rate ‘over 60%’ is combined with an explosion

■ For 4-year-old horses, the 3-year experience speaks for itself

Lagluff, who ran well in the Hopeful Stakes aged 2 and finished 3rd, should have performed well in the Classics but was hampered by the high wall of his generation, finishing 8th in the Satsuki Sho. In the summer, he restarted from a conditional race, won the class by 2 wins, placed 5th at Centlight Memorial and smashed the class by 3 wins in his previous race, consistently climbing ladders and back again to the heavy front of the prizes. .

The progress pattern at the Nakayama Gold Cup with the class 3 wins in the previous race as a step, although there is an example in 2009 where Higurasu won with the momentum of consecutive victories, the last 10 years[1, 1, 2, 10]it is basically an open race. Horses that have competed in graded races tend to be more beneficial.

In terms of outcomes by age group, there is not much difference between 4-7 year olds and 4 year old horses are[23219]which is the next best performance after 5-year-olds in terms of win ratio, top-to-top ratio, and multiple win ratio. However, looking at the breakdown, 5 of the 7 top 3 finishers had a track record of finishing in the top 3 in mixed grade horses. This will be Lagluff’s first time competing against an older horse in a graded event, but will the lack of experience he had when he was three be on display here?

Also, Lagluff has won 4 races so far, but all the wins are stepping up and set the fastest time in 3F, and 3 of the 4 wins have been on long straight courses like Tokyo and Niigata. Instead in the competitions in which he lost, especially in Nakayama, he suffered a crushing defeat without showing the characteristics of him, such as the Satsuki Sho and the Centlight Memorial two races ago, so Tokyo and Niigata may be better suited in terms of course suitability .

His GI results at age 2 and his momentum to win the condition class will likely attract a lot of support.LagulfHowever, I can’t trust as much as my taste, so I decided to take the plunge and say, “CancelI want to go.

◆[Pronostici Nakayama Gold Cup 2023/Diagnosi di recupero]Shoal “B” for a popular 4-year-old horse “The whole offense is loose and the tension is dangerous”

◆[Previsione Nakayama Gold Cup 2023 / Acquisizione dati]More than 80% of the betting ticket rate reject the theory that the course is not good.

◆[Nakayama Gold Cup 2023 Forecast / Anuma Analyze Vol.2]An ambush around the alleged “8 popularity” “If you join the members of this time, you will be bully”

Text Yutaka Ishikawa