Participation at 5 p.m. in the second round of municipal elections, this Sunday, June 28, stands at 34.67%, or four points below what it was at the same time in the first round on March 15 (38.77%) , according to figures from the Interior Ministry.
Participation is therefore almost 18 points lower at 5 p.m. than in the second round of municipal elections in 2014 (52.36%), and almost 20 points compared to 2008 (54.45%).
Also read: DIRECT. Municipal 2020: 34.67% participation at 5 p.m., towards a record abstention rate
Around 40 to 41% participation at 8 p.m.
Turnout should rise from 40 to 41% at 8 p.m. Sunday, when polling stations are closed for the second round of municipal elections, according to estimates by three polling institutes.
It should be 40%, for Elabe Berger-Levrault with BFMTV and Le Parisien, 40.5%, according to Harris Interactive / Epoka for TF1-LCI and RTL. And 41% according to Ipsos-Sopra Steria for France Télévisions, Radio France and parliamentary channels.
In the first round, on March 15, participation at 8 p.m. was 44.66%.
The participation of the 16.5 million voters called to vote in 4,820 communes (15% of the communes) on Sunday is one of the main stakes of the ballot, whereas on March 15 already, less than one voter in two – 44 , 3%, compared to 63.5% in 2014 – moved to vote in the first round due to the risk of contamination from coronavirus.
This second round is organized with exceptional health precautions due to the Covid-19 epidemic: wearing of a mandatory mask at polling stations, hydroalcoholic gel and priority for vulnerable people to vote.
The suspense is strong in some of the biggest cities – Lyon, Marseille, Toulouse, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Lille… – mainly under the pressure of environmentalists. In Le Havre, the Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who voted at 8:15 am, is also playing his future at Matignon.
These municipal elections are held on the eve of a crucial sequence for the president Emmanuel Macron, who voted around noon in Le Touquet before treating himself to a crowd, without a mask. The head of state could, in the coming days, make a reshuffle and specify his stated intention to “reinvent himself” for the last two years of his mandate. As of Monday, he receives members of the Citizen’s Climate Convention.
Meanwhile, voters were in no hurry at the polling stations, after a campaign mainly confined to social media and the media. Main innovation, of limited scope, to facilitate voting: the same proxy may have two proxies instead of one, to allow a larger number of people, especially the elderly, to vote without having to travel.
Big cities in the balance
Unlike other large cities, the uncertainty is low at Paris, where the outgoing Anne Hidalgo (PS) contained its partners in the first roundEELV by endorsing a resolutely green program itself. With around 44% of voting intentions, it is well ahead of its competitors LR Rachida Dati and LREM Agnes Buzyn.
For La République en Marche, the day of the vote is that of the end of the ordeal: few of its candidates are well placed and the low-cost campaign has hardly allowed them to make themselves known.
In Le Havre, Édouard Philippe is credited with 53% of voting intentions (Ifop). But the importance of the stake can mobilize the abstainers of the first round.
Right and left to confirm, the Greens to break through
Very weakened at the national level, the Socialist Party and The Republicans have recovered their health locally. The PS is able to keep its strongholds – Paris, Nantes, Rennes, Dijon – and should return to its level after the loss of many cities in 2014.
The Republicans confirmed their establishment by winning in the first round many of the cities with more than 9,000 inhabitants they controlled. But a defeat to Marseille, that the right has held for 25 years, or Toulouse, the fourth city of France, would have a strong political resonance.
Among the major challenges of this election: EELV candidates, driven by the environmentalist wave, are targeting several large cities, including Grenoble, Lyon, Strasbourg, Toulouse, Besancon. For the Greens, who have long served as an additional force, it is also a matter of asserting themselves as the first on the left before the next election.
In Marseille, the second largest city in France, the left created surprise by leading the 1st round with the Printemps Marseille coalition, closely followed by Martine Vassal (LR) who is dubbed by the outgoing Jean-Claude Gaudin.
Emmanuel Macron’s main opponent at the national level, the Rassemblement national transfers his hopes to Perpignan after a mixed first round. If successful, it would be the first city of more than 100,000 inhabitants controlled by the party since 1995.
“It’s a turning point … this time it’s going to be very fair”, predicts Abdelkrim El Gharbaoui, 59, former PS activist, dreadlocks and red t-shirt struck with his first name.
The municipal councilors, elected for six years, will then meet from Friday 3 to Sunday 5 July to elect the mayors and their assistants.
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